President Joe Biden’s decision to step down as the Democratic party candidate has led to an increase in support for his running mate, Kamala Harris. The odds of a Democrat winning the White House have risen to 38% from 18% since Harris’ gains in the Polymarket polls. However, individual bets seem to be the reason for Harris’ increase in popularity, while Trump’s bettors show more conviction. The top five holders of the ‘Yes’ side of Trump’s contract have a collective 9.1 million shares, whereas the top five holders of the ‘Yes’ side of the Harris contract have 4.7 million shares. Overall, bettors have wagered $423 million on the outcome of the Presidential race.
One user, known as ‘Larpas,’ stands to win $3.38 million if Trump wins the election, as they hold the largest stake in the ‘Yes’ bet of the Trump contract and the ‘No’ side of the Harris contract. The betting market is expected to become more active as the election approaches, with the crypto community viewing a vote for Harris as a vote against the digital asset industry. Moreover, there are discussions about introducing leverage to Polymarket, which could attract traders looking to maximize their gains.
In terms of cryptocurrency regulations, Mainland China is unlikely to unban Bitcoin by 2024, according to Polymarket bettors who give it a 16% chance of happening. The ban on crypto exchanges in Mainland China has helped bitcoin mature, but concerns about capital flight and Yuan stability remain significant obstacles to lifting the ban. Despite calls for progress in this area, the complexities of allowing crypto trading in Mainland China make it a challenging proposition.
As for Coinbase, its trading volume has seen a decline over the year, with predictions suggesting a significant drop in the upcoming quarter. Bettors in Kalshi prediction markets forecast that Coinbase’s volume will reach $164.8 billion for the quarter, down from $312 billion in the previous quarter. This decrease in trading volume could have implications for Coinbase’s stock performance, with traders closely monitoring the situation leading up to the exchange’s earnings announcement on August 1.
Overall, the predictions and trends in the cryptocurrency market indicate a shifting landscape that is influenced by political developments, regulatory decisions, and trading behaviors. As the election draws nearer and regulatory uncertainties persist, the crypto industry remains dynamic and unpredictable, requiring traders and investors to stay informed and adapt to changing conditions.