Bitcoin is expected to surpass $100,000 after the U.S. election based on historical data. The current price of BTC is undervalued compared to previous market cycles, whether measured from the cycle low or since the halving. As we await the results of the U.S. presidential election, the crypto markets are likely to remain volatile in the short term, with the election outcomes influencing price movements.
Bitcoin, which was created in 2009, is approaching its fourth U.S. election. Looking back at data from the three previous elections, it is evident that the largest cryptocurrency has consistently rallied post-election and never returned to its election-day price. If this pattern repeats itself, we can expect BTC’s price to peak about a year after the election.
During the 2012 U.S. election, Bitcoin was trading around $11, and by November 2013, it had surged nearly 12,000% to over $1,100. In the following election cycle, the price of Bitcoin was around $700 in early November, and it reached a peak of around $18,000 in December 2017, marking a 3,600% increase. Following the most recent election in November 2020, amidst the Covid-19 pandemic, Bitcoin rallied by 478% to a market high of approximately $69,000 a year later, hitting a record high of over $73,000 in March 2024.
After each election cycle, the percentage increase in Bitcoin’s price has decreased, indicating diminishing returns. By extrapolating this trend, it is estimated that there could be a post-election rally of around 47.8%, potentially taking Bitcoin to about $103,500 by the fourth quarter of 2025.
It is essential to note that Bitcoin is currently undervalued compared to previous cycles, whether analyzed from the cycle low or the halving in April. This cycle has been the worst-performing one following the halving, with Bitcoin only 7% higher than when the 50% reduction occurred. This further supports the theory of diminishing returns in the cryptocurrency market.
As a senior analyst at CoinDesk, James specializes in Bitcoin and the macro environment, leveraging his experience in on-chain analytics from his previous role at Swiss hedge fund Saidler & Co. He closely monitors ETFs, spot and futures volumes, and flows to gain insights into Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
In conclusion, the historical data and trends suggest that Bitcoin is poised for a significant rally post-U.S. election, potentially surpassing $100,000 in the coming years. Investors and traders are advised to stay informed about market developments and factors influencing Bitcoin’s price movements to make informed decisions in the volatile crypto market.
