The Republican Party in the United States appears to be on track to maintain control of the House of Representatives, adding to their victories in the Senate and White House during the 2024 election cycle. According to the latest data from the Associated Press, out of 435 seats, 409 have been called, with Democrats holding 199 seats and Republicans holding 210. The party that reaches 218 seats first will secure the majority, and it seems like the Republicans are close to achieving that goal. Betting site Polymarket has been predicting this outcome, with traders giving the Republicans at least a 51% chance of winning, and as of now, they have a 98.5% chance of securing the House.
As of Thursday evening, Republicans were leading in at least 14 races out of the 27 remaining, according to AP results. In Alaska, Republican Nick Begich had a significant lead over Democrat Mary Peltola, with 76% of the votes counted. In Arizona, Congressman David Schweikert, a co-founder of the Congressional Blockchain Caucus, was also in the lead. In Iowa and Nebraska, Republicans Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Don Bacon were ahead in their respective races. In Washington, Dan Newhouse was set to win, further solidifying the Republican lead.
If these results hold, Democrats would need to win all the remaining races in California and secure victories in other districts to regain the House. However, Republicans are currently leading in seven races in California, with candidates like David Valadao, Michael Garcia, Young Kim, and Michelle Steel in the lead. While the final results may change as more votes are counted, it looks like Republicans are poised to hold 224 seats in the House, a two-seat improvement from the previous Congress.
On Polymarket, bettors are giving an 86% chance of Republicans holding the majority in the House. This is a significant increase from the initial odds when polls closed on election night. The scenario where Republicans secure 215 to 219 seats has the second-highest probability at 21%.
Overall, it seems like the Republican Party is set for an electoral victory in the House of Representatives, aligning with the predictions from Polymarket and betting odds. The final results will become clearer as more races are called and votes are counted, but for now, Republicans are in a strong position to maintain control of the House for the next two years.
