MADRID, 23 May. (EUROPA PRESS) –

The recovery of the labor market on a global scale is threatened by several mutually related international crises, as well as by the increase in inequality, warns the International Labor Organization (ILO), which estimates a deficit of 112 million jobs in time complete in the first quarter of 2022.

Specifically, after the substantial progress made in the last quarter of 2021, the number of working hours on a global scale fell between January and March, down to 3.8% below the reference level, corresponding to what existed before of the crisis (4th quarter of 2019), which is equivalent to a deficit of 112 million full-time jobs.

This represents a step backwards in the recovery process since the last quarter of 2021, when the deficit in hours worked worldwide was 3.2%, as a consequence of the impact of the recent containment measures against Covid-19 implemented in China, responsible for 86% of the global decline in hours worked in the first quarter of 2022.

Likewise, the ILO points out the impact on the labor markets related to the conflict in Ukraine, with a collapse in the hours worked in this country and a considerable deterioration in the Russian Federation, with falls of 15 and 1.3 percentage points in relation to the fourth quarter of 2021, respectively.

In this way, the latest estimates for the first quarter of 2022 present a marked deterioration compared to the ILO projections of January 2022, which pointed to a deficit of 2.4% in hours worked, equivalent to 70 million full time jobs.

“Global inflationary pressures, especially in food and energy prices, supply chain disruptions, increased financial stress and monetary policy tightening have not yet had a full impact on labor markets around the world. the world,” warns the ILO, pointing to the “growing risk” of further deterioration in hours worked during 2022.

In this sense, the organization anticipates that the level of hours worked worldwide will decrease even more in the second quarter of 2022 as a result of the situation in China and the war in Ukraine. The latest ILO projection for the second quarter of 2022 points to the level of hours worked being 4.2% below the pre-pandemic level, which is equivalent to a deficit of 123 million full-time jobs complete.

“The global labor market recovery has reversed its favorable trend. The summation of the effects of several mutually related crises has made the fragile and uneven recovery that was taking place currently more uncertain. The effects on workers and their families, particularly in developing countries, are going to be devastating and could have very adverse social and political repercussions,” said Guy Ryder, ILO Director-General.

In its analysis, the ILO highlights the “great divergence” in the evolution of labor markets between rich and poor countries that continues to characterize the recovery of the labor market in 2022.

Thus, high-income countries have seen a strong recovery since the first quarter of 2021, although in the first three months of 2022 the level of hours worked in these economies was still 2.1 percentage points lower than before the crisis. crisis.

By contrast, low- and lower-middle-income economies suffered setbacks in their recovery in early 2022. Already constrained by limited fiscal space and vaccination rollouts, these countries are now bearing the brunt of financial shocks, food and energy.

In low-income countries, hours worked fell further, from a gap of 3.1% in the first quarter of 2021 relative to the last quarter of 2019, to a deficit of 3.6% in the first quarter of 2022.

Lower-middle-income countries saw the gap in hours worked further deteriorate, from 4.3% to 5.7%, while hours worked in upper-middle-income countries recovered during 2021, but since then have recorded losses, mainly reflecting developments in China.

“These diverging trends are likely to worsen in the second quarter of 2022,” warns the ILO, which projects an improvement in rich countries, where the shortfall in hours worked will shrink to 1.5%, while in low-income countries low income will stagnate at 3.6% and in those with upper middle income it will worsen to 3.5% and in those with lower middle income the negative imbalance will accentuate to 6%.

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