According to the report of the Council of orientation of the retirements expected given the top start of the reform, the financial accounts would still be in the red by 2025.

the request of The Prime minister could she turn against him ? During his speech on the pension reform front, the Eesc at the beginning of September, Edward Philip had commissioned a new report to the Board of direction des retraites (COR), an independent body. Objective: to take the temperature again of the financial situation of the pension system in the coming years. “Everyone will be fully informed of the situation that we face and of the levers available to ensure that the balance in 2025”, he said. Paf.

According to the report which should be presented officially on the 22nd November, and that The Express has obtained, the prospects are far from good. The deficit would be between 7.9 billion and 17.2 billion, or between 0.3% and 0.7% of GDP in 2025.

the Three levers of savings raised

This is not really a surprise: in June of last year, the NRC had anticipated already of the accounts in the red, forecasting a deficit of 0.3% to 0.6% of GDP in 2025, and with a return to balance only in 2056. But that’s it. Emmanuel Macron has made this balance a condition sine qua non of the top starts of the future plan for universal points. The range rather wide of the COR, which does not augur well for the executive. The pension reform could be postponed? At the moment it is unlikely. For the plan to be balanced at the time of the toggle, three alternatives present themselves, sketch the HORN: increase contributions, sub-index pensions or to shift the age of retirement via a postponement of the pensionable age, a lengthening of the period of insurance, or a combination of these two measures…

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The authors state that “this presentation does not mean that these measures are regarded as appropriate by all members of the COR”. A formula good policy to hide the differences of the different members that make up the instance.

If the increase in contributions can collect the favors of some unions, it is not sure that the employers receives a good eye, points out an observer. The under-indexation of pensions would, in turn, a short track which is engaging to the government that may bring back the retirees, already scalded by a diet in the past year. The draft law of the social Security act provides that by 2020, retired people earning less than 2000 euros gross per month in total, would see their basic pension uprated by the amount of inflation. The increase will be 0.3% for the other.

The retirement age on the table

it Remains, therefore, the question of the age. “In spite of the precautions opening, we can see in this report that it is working longer,” hisses a trade unionist. “If the NRC told us that it misses 8 to 10 billion, we must say that we need to work a little longer”, had in effect said Emmanuel Macron during his intervention at Rodez. Of the subjects, he said that it should be put in the debate… here We go.

“The increase in required age of entitlement in order to balance the pension system in 2025 would be between 2.5 months and 5.4 months, by generation from generation, 1959, and up to the generation of 1963, depending on the assumptions made [growth, unemployment rate…]”, one can read in the report. The government would be willing to accelerate the schedule of increase of the number of quarters required for the full rate ? This would be a red rag for the CFDT and Unsa, which are always hostile to reform parametric.

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Another option proposed by the authors: a modulation of the duration of insurance for the benefit of the full rate, of the order of five months to ten months per generation. “This increase would apply following a load increase, over five generations (1959 to 1963), and would replace the gradual increase already scheduled in current law, writes the COR, which takes as a time reference 167 quarters for the generation of 1958. For example, the legal duration of insurance for the generation of 1963 would be to 44.1 years in one of the scenarios proposed.

in Addition to a combination of these two options, the report also proposes the establishment of a minimum age for the full rate (AMPT) “, which would change the conditions for reaching the full rate for the insured, without changing the age of entitlement”. It should be between 63.1 years and 64.3 years in order for the financial balance of the system is reached in 2025. It’s the return of the age of the pivot, squeaks a trade unionist. In his report, Jean-Paul Delevoye, the architect of the reform, advocated an “age of balance” of 64 years, below which the pensions would suffer a haircut. The subject had in July ignited the discussions, the unions are opposed. At the beginning of September, Emmanuel Macron had suggested that he was not really enthusiastic at this idea.

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And finally, if the face of the huge social movement that is emerging, the government gave up on its reform parametric to preserve the essential, that is to say, a shift in the universal plan? Within the majority, more and more members are moving forward this idea, convinced that it is not necessary to add today an element blocking, in particular with the CFDT. Letting go of the ballast to continue to reform on the remainder of the quinquennium and to avoid paralysis. The Prime minister, Édouard Philippe, right in his boots “Juppéiennes” would be the opposite… but the event would be seriously studied at the Elysée palace. The success or failure of the day of December 5, may give some insights…