The specialist of the world Russian Galia Ackerman focuses on the relations between Vladimir Putin and Nicolas Maduro.
Galia Ackerman was born in Moscow. This recognized specialist in the life and history of the Russian policy and has published numerous books, including Cross Chernobyl (First Parallel), and Femen (Calmann-Lévy). It analyzes the support of Vladimir Putin, Nicolas Maduro, the dictator of venezuela.
The Express : the crisis in venezuela, Vladimir Putin gives his support to president Nicolas Maduro. The United States to support the opposition, represented by Juan Guaido. What decryption do you make of this position ? That she said the current choice of Russia ?
Galia Ackerman : This is a question with many facets, according to me.
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Why ?
since already a moment Putin supports systematically the dictatorial regimes and populist, and he has made a specialty of flying to the rescue of dictators in difficulty. In the eyes of the Kremlin, any dictator, any tyrant has his chance. The master of Russia has supported from and against all Bashar al-Assad, for example, contributing largely to restrengthen him. He has supported all those who, in their respective countries, were opposed to the current democratic. Even Ben Salman was entitled to his support when he was mired in the case of Khashoggi and his allies were “radio silence”. 400 men of the company military private named Wagner, under direct control of Putin, would have been sent to Venezuela to protect Maduro.
What is the significance for Russia of the status quo to Caracas ? Why the Kremlin watch-t-he so attached to this that nothing changes ?
Venezuela is a “place” oil is strong and, for the Russians, the energy interest represented by this south american country is double-a second motivation – rooted in the time in a key space in Central America. The Russians have already sent a military aircraft landing on the aerodrome of Caracas. They have recently provided a special financial assistance of € 1.6 billion to Maduro, during his very recent trip to Moscow. The scale of Russian investments in the economy of venezuela should not be under-estimated. Their contracts include terms and conditions are very flexible for the Venezuelans and the repayments in time. Moscow plays so deliberately at a loss, to keep its presence in Venezuela.
And what is the share of ideological adherence in the unfailing support of the Kremlin dictator of venezuela ? Is it a basic solidarity between “illibéraux”, to use the terminology of the political scientist Yascha Munch (1) ?
of course ! In the political lexicon of Russian today, the word “liberal” has become a true insult. And a lot of people mull over in Russia the idea that Guaido is supported by the White House and that the recognition of Guaido as acting president of Venezuela would be the consequence of the us pressure.
Downright ?
Yes ! And that is obviously false. “Liberal” is the epithet which is decked out Guaido, and it means, in the ears of the average Russian, “pro-american” – and therefore a “traitor” to his country… It is there… The murders of opponents by Maduro does not constitute an obstacle in the vision machiavélienne and even schmittienne of Russians, who think only of their personal space, and never the respect of some fundamental principles. The Russians are taking a risk.
Where, precisely ?
If, in the end, Guaido and the liberals outweigh Maduro and his entourage illibéral, the Russians and the Chinese will do everything to change their tune and maintain, at all costs, their position in the south american continent. But it will be very difficult to accomplish this change of alliance in the nick of time if, in the period of uncertainty, Russia is investing way too visible with Maduro and neglects to reach out a hand to Guaido. A Russian military intervention to shore up Maduro is technically very difficult. The Russians are therefore embarrassed of the turn taken by events. If Guaido, once they came to power, reprivatisait the oil market, the contracts, the russians may find themselves obsolete… For the time being the game is not won, and the populist regime of Maduro excels to delay the deadline of its collapse because it has always the support -bought, of course – a part of the population (especially the poorest) and of the army.
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(1) author of : The people against democracy (editions of the Observatory).