The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has defended its action of warning the Community of Madrid for extreme risk (red notice) for this Sunday, given the forecast that the meteorological situation caused by the isolated depression at high levels of the atmosphere ( DANA), that “it was a very serious phenomenon”.
In statements to Telecinco collected by Europa Press, AEMET spokesman José Luis Camacho stated that “the prognosis that it was a very serious phenomenon was very good” and stated that from AEMET’s point of view “they acted well”. with the technical means available.
Thus, he explained that red level warnings were issued at the end of Saturday for the south of the province of Madrid and La Mancha of Toledo, because the models showed a patch of accumulation of precipitation rivers and the reading that the AEMET technicians made At the end of that day it pointed to a sum of more than 100 liters per square meter “in generic areas” of the Community of Madrid.
In addition, he added that since the city of Madrid “is sensitive”, in the early hours of the morning a red notice was issued for the entire Community for the accumulation of 100 liters per square meter or more throughout the day.
Finally, he pointed out that some 50 liters per square meter accumulated in the metropolitan area, but the DANA frontal system later moved some 50 kilometers to the west, areas where daily precipitation records were achieved, with amounts of 90 liters in the Alberche river and in Ávila.
Other meteorologists, such as Francisco Martín, now an expert for Meteored, have also defended the actions of the AEMET. “In my years of experience at AEMET, every time there is an extreme adverse phenomenon, like the one yesterday, like the one these days ago, one, two or three politicians on duty always appear who make statements that are out of place,” he denounced. in statements to Europa Press.
In this sense, he assures that AEMET was 80 or 90% correct in its forecasts and that the problem arises when forecasts have to be made for large urban centers. “So, these possible failures, which for me were not, have been highlighted too much and, on the other hand, the positive part of issuing a red notice and preventing the mobility of people from being even greater is not seen.” he has manifested to emphasize that “the AEMET notices saved lives”.
For her part, Mar Gómez, PhD in Physics and head of the meteorology area at eltiempo.es, has ensured that the forecasts have generally been accurate. “The red notices were active in Cádiz and the center of the peninsula and we cannot say that in Madrid it has not been fulfilled because it has not rained torrentially in the capital because it has done so in other parts of the Community”, she has stressed.
Gómez added that if the meteorological situation is serious, it must be reported, but he added that the responsibility of scientific communicators and popularizers remains to educate the population so that they are aware of the different meteorological phenomena and the range of uncertainty that may exist. “The DANAS represent very complex situations to model and predict. We must know that meteorology is not a 100% exact science and transmitting that is not easy. That is why probabilistic and non-deterministic predictions should predominate”, he stressed.
