Russia’s large-scale buildup of troops, warplanes and equipment near Ukraine’s borders raised fears of an invasion in the coming days. This could have prompted a resurgence in Bitcoin ( TC) which fell below $39,600 of strong support.
There is hope for crypto investors despite all the doom and gloom. Glassnode data shows that more 60% has not been used for any transaction in more than one year. This indicates that long-term hodlers have not abandoned their positions in the downtrend.
Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence, , warned that Bitcoin could have a rough week ahead and warned that inflation is unlikely to fall unless risk assets do. However, McGlone believes that Bitcoin will emerge stronger in the coming year.
Bitcoin and other altcoins could stage a recovery that would trap aggressive bears. Let’s look at the charts of top-5 cryptocurrency that could participate in a relief rally.
BTC/USDT
It is clear that Bitcoin is still being sold by bears, despite the strong support of $39,600. The 20-day exponential moving mean ($41,193) is starting to decline and the relative strength indicator (RSI) has slipped back into negative territory. This suggests that the bears are in control.
If the price remains below $39,600, selling could pick up and the BTC/USDT exchange pair could fall to the immediate support zone of $36,250 and 35,507.
Because a break below this level could open the way for a retest at the Jan. 24 intraday high of $32,917.17, the bulls will likely defend it aggressively. The greater chance of a downward move, the longer the price remains below $39,600.
Contrary to popular belief, if the price rises quickly above $39,600 and bounces off its current level, it will indicate strong accumulation at lower levels. The bulls will attempt to push the price higher than the 20-day EMA.
To signal a new up-move, the bulls must clear the overhead hurdle at $45,821.
The lack of a strong rebound by the bulls from the $39600 support suggests that there is not enough demand at higher levels. This could have encouraged the bears to pull the price below $39,000.
The RSI is now deep in the oversold territory. This suggests that selling may have been excessively done in the short-term. This indicates a short-term consolidation or relief rally.
If bears are successful in defending the breakdown level at the next bounce, selling could intensify and the pair may plummet to $36,000. If bulls push the pair above $41,000, this negative view will be invalidated in the short-term.
LEO/USD
UNUS SEED LEO ( LEO ) has been correcting after making an all-time high of $8.14 on February 8. While the bears managed to pull the price below $5.74 Fibonacci retracement, the bulls aggressively defend the 20-day EMA ($5.45).
Bulls are showing a slight advantage due to the rising 20-day EMA, and the RSI being in positive territory. The LEO/USD pair may attempt to resume its up-move if buyers push the price higher than $6.24. The pair could rise to $7.
If bulls don’t sustain the rebound, bears will see an opportunity to pull the pair below 20-day EMA. If they succeed, sentiment could become bearish and the pair could slide to $5.18 at the 61.8% level of retracement.
The 4-hour chart shows the pair is range bound between $5.52 to $6.24. The 20-EMA has flattened and the 50-simple moving mean has fallen. The RSI is close to the midpoint, which indicates a balance in supply and demand.
If the bears pull back and keep the price below $5.52, this balance will shift in their favor. The price could drop to the 200-SMA.
The pair could rise to $6.24 if buyers continue pushing the price higher than the 50-SMA. To signal their return to the driver’s seat, bulls must clear this hurdle.
MANA/USDT
Decentraland (MANA), which was below the downtrend line on February 16, indicated that sentiment is still bearish and traders are buying rallies to strong resistance levels.
The bears have pulled down the price below the 50 day SMA ($2.83). This opens up the possibility of a downside to the strong support zone at $2.44 and the $200-day SMA ($2.20).
If the price bounces off of this zone, bulls will attempt to push MANA/USDT back to the downtrendline. This hurdle will be cleared by the bulls to signal a new up-move.
If bears fall and keep the price below 200-day SMA then the selling could intensify, and the pair could slide further towards $1.70.
The price has fallen below the 200-SMA by the bears. The pair could fall to the support channel line if the price holds below the 200-SMA. The pair could fall to $2.44 if it breaks and closes below the channel.
The bulls will push the pair higher than the 200-SMA if the price rises from its current level. This will be the first sign that bulls may be making a comeback. The possibility of a rally towards the channel resistance line will increase if the channel breaks and closes above the 20EMA.
KLAY/USDT
Klaytn’s native cryptocurrency KLAY fell below the downtrend line on February 16, which indicates that bears are continuing to sell rallies.
A minor plus is that the bulls haven’t allowed the price below the 20-day EMA ($1.23). This suggests that traders are buying dips to this support.
The bulls will attempt to overcome the overhead hurdle at downtrend line if the price rises above the SMA ($1.27). It will signal a possible shift in trend if they succeed. The KLAY/USDT exchange rate could rise to $1.50.
A break and close below 20-day EMA could indicate that buyers have been defeated by bears. This could bring the price down to $1.10.
The overhead resistance of $1.36 is being defended aggressively by the bears as shown in the 4-hour chart. The price fell from this resistance, but the bulls haven’t allowed it to fall below the 50 SMA.
If the price rises from its current level, buyers will try to overcome the immediate resistance at $1.31. If the price breaks and closes above this level, it could lead to a rally to $1.50.
If the pair closes below the 200 SMA, this positive view could be negated. This could bring the pair down to $1.15.
XTZ/USDT
Tezos ( XTZ), which fell below the downtrend line on February 10, indicated that bears are continuing to sell during rallies. The bears will attempt to bring the price back to the uptrend.
Since March 2020, the uptrend line has served as a strong support. The bulls will likely defend the uptrend line vigorously. If the price bounces off this support, buyers will attempt to push the XTZ/USDT pairing above the downtrend.
The pair may signal a change in trend if they succeed. If the price falls below the uptrend line, this positive outlook could be invalidated. This could lead to further downside.
The 4-hour chart clearly shows that the pair is still in a bear grip. The price dropped to $3.32 Fibonacci Retracement Level at 61.8%, which is a critical level for bulls to defend. Breaking and closing below this support could increase the chance of a fall to the $2.98 Fibonacci level of retracement and then to the uptrend line.
A break above the 20-EMA will signal strength. This will signal that selling pressure may be decreasing. If the break and close above 50-SMA is seen, a possible trend change could be in store.
