The tradition of shaking hands between presidential candidates at debates may be coming to an end. In the upcoming 2024 presidential debate, Polymarket bettors are skeptical that Donald Trump and Joe Biden will engage in this customary gesture. With shares trading at 32 cents for a handshake to occur, the odds seem uncertain.
The decision to forgo handshakes in recent debates can be attributed to the heightened tension and acrimony between candidates. The absence of a handshake in the 2020 debate cycle was due to Covid protocols rather than personal animosity. As the 2024 debate approaches, topics such as Trump’s claims of election fraud and legal issues, as well as Biden’s mental acuity, are likely to take center stage. In such a charged environment, the likelihood of a handshake seems increasingly slim.
Meanwhile, speculation abounds regarding the acceptance of cryptocurrency donations by the Biden campaign following Trump’s lead. However, Polymarket bettors are not optimistic about this possibility, giving it a mere 14% chance of happening by June 21.
In a separate development, the Guardian recently published an article casting prediction markets in a negative light, associating them with controversial figures and practices. Manifold forecasters predict an 84% chance of the Guardian issuing a correction to the article, highlighting the ongoing debate surrounding misinformation and accountability in journalism.
On the sports front, the Edmonton Oilers’ recent victory over the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup finals has not significantly altered the prediction markets’ assessment of their chances. While Edmonton’s odds have improved slightly, Florida remains the favored team with a 90% chance of winning the series. Despite sportsbooks offering slightly higher odds for the Oilers, the consensus is that Florida is poised to secure the Stanley Cup with just one more victory.
As the political, journalistic, and sporting landscapes continue to evolve, prediction markets offer a unique lens through which to analyze and anticipate future outcomes. Whether it’s the behavior of political candidates, the integrity of media reporting, or the performance of sports teams, these markets provide valuable insights into the dynamics shaping our society.
