Betting on a potential presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has reached a staggering $445 million on the Polymarket platform. This surge in election betting has propelled Polymarket’s cumulative bet volume to $1.03 billion in July, up from $672.94 million in June. This exponential growth marks a significant increase from the platform’s cumulative bet volume of $283.16 million in July 2023.
Polymarket, known as the world’s largest prediction market, allows users to bet on a wide range of news events, including the highly anticipated US presidential election. Recent headlines surrounding Harris’ potential Democratic nomination and an assassination attempt on Trump have sparked a wave of interest and activity on the platform.
Despite its US-centric focus, Polymarket is currently not directly accessible to American users, who must utilize VPNs and crypto wallets with USDC to participate in betting activities on the platform.
In the aftermath of President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the Democratic race, Harris has seen a significant increase in the odds of winning, doubling from 18% to 38%. This uptick in support for Harris has been driven by a multitude of smaller bets, while Trump continues to garner backing from a few high-stakes bettors.
Despite Harris’ recent gains, large-scale bettors on Polymarket overwhelmingly favor Trump, who maintains a substantial lead with a 59% chance of winning the elections. The platform’s interactive map and trending market analysis illustrate a fiercely contested election landscape, with key battleground states showing strong Republican favorability.
Looking ahead, Republicans are currently favored to control both the presidency and the Senate, while Democrats are expected to maintain control of the House. In terms of the Democratic nominee race, Kamala Harris holds a commanding 96% chance of securing the nomination, with Michelle Obama trailing at 2%. Additionally, Josh Shapiro leads the Democratic vice presidential nominee race with 32%, closely followed by Mark Kelly at 29%.
When it comes to the popular vote, bettors on Polymarket give Kamala Harris a 60% chance of emerging victorious, while Trump holds a 38% chance. The platform’s data reflects a dynamic and fluid election season, with intense competition and shifting probabilities shaping the political landscape as the race progresses.
