This week in prediction markets, it seems that Joe Biden is likely to win the popular vote, but may not secure the presidency, according to insights from Polymarket. As history has shown, Donald Trump is among the few U.S. presidents who have won the electoral college, and thus the presidency, despite losing the popular vote. If the predictions from the markets hold true, Trump may repeat this feat in the upcoming election.
Polymarket’s contract on who will win the popular vote shows that President Joe Biden has a 56% chance of prevailing, with “yes” shares trading at 56 cents. On the other hand, Trump has a 36% chance of winning the popular vote, based on recent prices. Traders have placed $36 million in bets on this question, making it one of Polymarket’s top markets in terms of volume.
The largest market on Polymarket is focused on predicting the winner of the presidency, with a record $182 million in bets. Here, Trump is the clear favorite with a 57% chance of winning compared to Biden’s 35%. Polymarket blocks U.S. users due to regulatory reasons, so traders are likely making predictions from outside the country.
The Electoral College, established in 1787, is designed to balance the influence of populous and less populous states in the election process. Each state has a set number of electors, totaling 538, and a majority of 270 electoral votes is needed to win the presidency. Critics view this system as undemocratic, while supporters argue it protects minority rights against potential majority tyranny.
In terms of campaign donations, there was speculation that Biden would start accepting cryptocurrency donations, following Trump’s lead. However, Biden’s campaign has not made any announcements regarding this matter. The prediction market on whether Biden would accept crypto donations by a certain date resolved to “no”, as the timeframe lapsed without any action from the campaign.
Another intriguing development involved Barron Trump’s alleged involvement in the creation of the DJT token, which created quite a stir in the crypto community. Despite initial reports suggesting Barron’s role in the token’s creation, the Polymarket contract on this matter has faced disputes and is still under review. The token’s prices experienced a significant drop after the initial hype, with uncertainty looming over its future.
As the election season progresses, these prediction markets offer a glimpse into the potential outcomes based on current trends and insights. Whether Biden will secure the popular vote or Trump will clinch another victory in the electoral college remains to be seen. The intersection of politics, finance, and cryptocurrency adds a layer of complexity to the unfolding narrative, keeping investors and observers on the edge of their seats as they await the final results.
