As the 2024 US Presidential election approaches, Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, has been gaining momentum. The current bets on the platform reflect a growing sentiment that President Biden may drop out of the race following a lackluster debate performance against Trump and a recent New York Times report.
On Wednesday, the odds of “Biden drops out of presidential race?” reached 80%, indicating a significant belief that Biden may withdraw from the elections. This percentage has fluctuated throughout the day, starting at 55% and now standing at over 60%. In comparison, the odds of him dropping out were only 20% last week. The total bets placed on this market have exceeded $10 million, showcasing the intense speculation surrounding Biden’s candidacy.
During the presidential debate, concerns about Biden’s age and ability to lead the country were raised by observers in Washington and beyond. Reports suggest that Biden has discussed his candidacy with allies in the White House, expressing doubts about his chances of running for a second term as president.
The recent New York Times article titled “Biden Tells Allies He Knows He Has Only Days to Salvage Candidacy” quotes sources close to the president, stating that Biden acknowledges the precarious position of his candidacy. One ally mentioned that if Biden has more subpar events like the debate, his prospects may change significantly. However, the White House has refuted the claims made in the article, denying that Biden expressed such sentiments.
The growing uncertainty surrounding Biden’s candidacy has sparked a surge in betting activity on Polymarket. The platform witnessed a trading volume exceeding $100 million in June alone, underscoring the intense interest in the upcoming election. In the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market on Polymarket, Kamala Harris’s odds of winning have increased to 16%, while Biden’s chances have dropped to 13%. Trump leads the pack with a 62% probability of winning the election.
Overall, the speculation over Biden’s future in the presidential race continues to intensify, with Polymarket serving as a barometer of public sentiment and expectations. As the election drama unfolds, the betting markets will likely remain active, reflecting the evolving dynamics of the political landscape.