Bitcoin’s price has taken a hit recently, down 23% from its peak, mainly over the past week. Analysts are now looking closely at historical trends to forecast how Bitcoin might perform in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Market analyst Benjamin Cowen has been studying Bitcoin’s relationship with its bull market support band (BMSB) to determine its future performance. He compared current trends to patterns from 2013, 2016, 2019, and 2023. Cowen suggests that Bitcoin’s performance in Q4 2024 will hinge on its ability to rise above the BMSB in the coming weeks.
In 2023, Bitcoin dropped below its BMSB in August, stayed below it for a few weeks, and then rallied in Q4. However, in 2019, after falling below the BMSB, the asset continued to decline in Q4. Cowen notes that the cycle peak typically occurs in the fourth quarter of the year after the halving, which would be 2025. He concludes that Bitcoin could go either way, depending on historical patterns.
Another analyst, ‘Rekt Capital,’ observed that Bitcoin is on the verge of closing its first weekly candle below the re-accumulation range low in over four months. This breakdown signals a bearish sentiment, with the asset losing support and trading below key levels.
CryptoQuant warned of caution after observing the largest long position liquidation of the year. The platform advised that while massive liquidation can lead to a bounce back, it took a couple of months in 2023 for the price to recover.
The general consensus is leaning towards a more bearish sentiment, with a possible further dip before consolidation for a few months, followed by potential movement in Q4. Bitcoin’s price has recovered to $57,000 after dipping to $54,320, but breaking resistance levels at $60,000 is crucial for further progress.
Additionally, this week’s US inflation reports could add more volatility to the already turbulent crypto markets. Traders and investors are advised to proceed with caution and closely monitor market developments.
As we navigate through the ups and downs of the crypto market, it’s essential to stay informed, analyze historical trends, and consider expert opinions to make sound investment decisions. The coming weeks and months will be crucial for Bitcoin’s performance, with all eyes on Q4 2024.