Bitcoin’s performance in July has historically been positive for holders, providing a glimmer of hope after a recent 10% drop in value. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), managed to climb back above $62,200 and even approached $63,000 with a 2% increase on Monday. This movement pushed BTC past a $43 million liquidity barrier, setting the stage for a potentially profitable month if past trends continue.
Looking back at previous years, July has seen an average increase of nearly 8% in Bitcoin’s value following a decline in June. Despite experiencing losses in June on six occasions between 2013 and 2024, Bitcoin saw significant gains of at least 9.6% in July during those years. This pattern is reinforced by reports of miners selling off BTC to cover costs after the halving, a trend that has slowed down leading into July.
Analyzing support and resistance levels, data from Glassnode and IntoTheBlock indicates that Bitcoin has found solid support around the $60,500 to $61,600 range. Over two million addresses hold more than 891,800 BTC valued at $55.7 billion, making it unlikely for Bitcoin to drop below this level, although not entirely impossible. On the flip side, key resistance walls at $64,700 and $64,550 could impede Bitcoin’s progress towards reclaiming the $70,000 mark in the short term.
In terms of macroeconomic events, the correlation between Bitcoin and global economic factors is expected to strengthen amid inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions. With inflation concerns in the U.S. and ongoing issues in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, macro events could significantly impact Bitcoin markets. The upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve chairman Jeremy Powell, the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, and U.S. Jobs data in early July could either fuel Bitcoin’s upward momentum or put a halt to its progress.
Ultimately, Bitcoin holders are keeping a close eye on July as historical data suggests a positive trend for the cryptocurrency. While external factors like macroeconomic events and market dynamics may influence Bitcoin’s performance, the overall outlook for the month appears to be optimistic for BTC enthusiasts. As the market continues to evolve, investors will be closely monitoring Bitcoin’s movements to capitalize on potential opportunities in the digital asset space.