Republican candidate Donald Trump is gaining momentum in the last weeks of the campaign, according to a market research report from Kalshi. This surge has led to accusations of dark money manipulation in the markets, especially with one of the largest pro-Trump holders on Polymarket’s election contract.
Trump currently leads against Democratic rival Kamala Harris by 56-44 on Kalshi, with a significant increase in early October. This rise in Trump’s odds is not entirely surprising, as Harris has been underperforming in key demographics and losing ground in “Blue Wall” states, especially with black male voters.
Jack Such, a market research analyst at Kalshi, notes that Trump’s projected surge in the popular vote is primarily fueled by gains in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, reflecting a weakening support base for Harris in these crucial states.
Despite Trump’s momentum on various prediction markets, including Polymarket and Betfair, there are suspicions surrounding a high-stakes bettor known as “Fredi9999.” This individual has reportedly placed $25 million in bets solely on Trump across different markets, leading to speculation about the motives behind these large bets.
While some believe that dark money may be at play to influence the election, others suggest that Fredi9999 could be a wealthy French trader with a strong pro-Trump stance. The lack of clarity on Fredi9999’s intentions raises questions about the potential impact of such massive bets on the election outcome.
Overall, the report from Kalshi highlights the growing support for Trump and the challenges faced by Harris as the campaign enters its final stretch. Despite the controversies surrounding the market manipulation allegations, the data indicates a shift in favor of the Republican candidate as the election approaches.