According to Polymarket bettors, there is a high likelihood that protesters from January 6 will receive a pardon compared to Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht in a potential second Trump White House. Betters are giving an 86% chance of a pardon for the January 6 protestors and a 78% chance for Ulbricht.
Former President Donald Trump has been vocal in his support for the January 6 protestors, referring to them as patriots who were unfairly targeted by a supposed “two systems of justice.” He has described the events of January 6 as a “day of love” and believes that his supporters were responding to what he claims was a “rigged” election.
During his campaign, Trump promised to commute Ross Ulbricht’s sentence to time served and to pardon the January 6 defendants if he were re-elected. This was seen as a move against government overreach and in support of personal freedoms. Trump’s commitment to freeing Ulbricht, who was sentenced to life for creating the Silk Road marketplace, was met with strong support at the Libertarian National Convention.
Many argue that Ulbricht’s sentence is excessive for a non-violent offense related to creating Silk Road, which was a platform that showcased Bitcoin’s potential as a decentralized and censorship-resistant system. Ulbricht’s mother is leading a campaign to secure his release, citing the Eighth Amendment and the discrepancies in sentencing compared to others involved in Silk Road.
It is important to note that while the Polymarket contract is for a pardon, Trump has not explicitly promised to do so, unlike in the case of the January 6 protestors. There is a potential for a UMA dispute due to the inconsistency in language between a pardon and a commute if Trump follows through with freeing Ulbricht.
In addition to these groups, bettors are also speculating on the chances of Trump pardoning himself (14%) and Sam Bankman-Fried (6%). The outcome of these bets remains to be seen.
Overall, the predictions from Polymarket bettors shed light on the potential pardons that could be granted in a hypothetical second Trump White House. The differing views on who should receive pardons highlight the complexities surrounding the issue of presidential pardons and the implications they hold for individuals involved in high-profile cases.