The path is narrow. Unemployment, learning… experts to scrutinize what still can the government do to revive employment. Decoding.

“I want to get my country out of this habituation to unemployment. I want the value of work to be shared by all,” said Manuel Valls on 14 December, the day after regional elections where the national Front has garnered 6.8 million votes.

to give substance to this declaration, he added that Hollande and the government “will do ads in the month of January” on the job training for the unemployed and learning. We can not say that these ads raised a great enthusiasm. It is true that they are reminiscent of many other…

1. Train the unemployed

The announcement of Manuel Valls : “Myriam El Khomri, minister of Labour, is preparing a massive plan of training for the unemployed.”

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“Train job seekers has a double advantage, observes Pierre Ferracci, president and CEO of the Alpha group : this responds to a real need for France too little its unemployed and its unskilled workers. Incidentally, this allows out and the people trained lists of Pole employment .” The training of job seekers is a skill that is regional that also involves the social partners, but it will require “the State to put the hand in the pocket” for this ad to make sense, adds Pierre Ferracci.

Put the hand in the pocket, yes, but for what ? “The government has already announced at the social conference in the month of October, a training plan a priority at the destination of 150 000 unemployed people , reminiscent of Jean-Pierre Willems, consultant and training expert. A plan in which it is still not the content.” Beyond the “lack of imagination” of a government that appears regularly in the same recipes, Jean-Pierre Willems points to the lack of preparation of such a measure: “ Form to form is not used for large-thing . What works, it’s to put the job seeker in a position of activity to find the training that can suit him or her.”

But above all, it is necessary that ” glue to the needs of its territory , adds Bertrand Martinot, economist (1), who was the general delegate for employment and vocational training from 2008 to 2012. I am not convinced that there is a problem of money invested in the training of job seekers. The real problem is the lack of adaptation and assessment in the return to employment.” The evidence : “a first plan for training of the unemployed has been launched in 2014,” continues Bertrand Martinot. Even before its assessment, announced by Myriam El Khomri for January, we committed to a new plan.” In his eyes, “the absolute urgency” is not to re-inject funds, but “really lead the training of job seekers and the guide to the trades in voltage .”

2. Revive the learning

The announcement of Manuel Valls : “I’m of the regions, regardless of their chairman, that they put the package for the youth and learning.”

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All observers agree on one point : “learning is a great way to enter the world of work,” says Pierre Ferracci. “This is why the government is finally restoring the aids to learning that he had deleted two years ago,” remarks Jean-Pierre Willems. The problem is that the machine, which was working rather well, ground to a standstill . It will have to wait a year or two before it restarts.”

Because learning is not automatic : “ all companies are the engine , ” says Pierre Ferracci. They would probably be more committed if “the circuits of funding were less complex. It would also require that the national Education, the professional branches and social partners speak a little more! Even if I admit things to be worked out a little bit.”

For Bertrand Martinot, the revival of learning is facilitated by “a complete overhaul of the second cycle of education. But it is not decided on a corner table : it is the site of a five-year term. ” According to him, these announcements only serve to “make the buzz. As all these recruitment premiums, which, after having been announced with great fanfare, are calibrated so that nobody claims them. It is necessary to stop taking the heads of business for bounty hunters .”

3. Acting on the negotiation of the convention on unemployment insurance

The announcement of Manuel Valls : “It takes not only to bring down the deficit of the unemployment insurance, but it is necessary that there is also counterparties with the unemployed that allow everyone, through training, to find a job.”

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The latest unemployment insurance agreement Unédic, which entered into force on July 1, 2014, will have a short life. The decision of the State Council, forgiving, in October, the new compensation rules , and the continued rise in unemployment have been due to this convention, which will have to be renegotiated prior to march 1, 2016.

(1) Author of “Unemployment, reverse the curve”, published by the Institut Montaigne aux editions Belles Lettres, 2014.

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Manuel Valls, the former Prime minister and ex-presidential candidate

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“In speaking thus, Manuel Valls fixed a framework for negotiations to the social partners , analysis Bertrand Martinot. At the previous trading, in 2014, the government had clearly announced that it was not necessary to touch anything, and especially not to the duration or the level of compensation. This time, it would seem that this is not the case : facing a situation of extremely stress, the social partners will have to take painful decisions .” Manuel Valls opens the door.

by doing so, the Prime minister is taking a risk that it does not seem to measure : “to do well interference, it is to give the social partners the impression that they are negotiating with a gun on the temple “, observes Jean-Pierre Willems, reminiscent of the precedent of 1984 . After the failure of a negotiation too mate, Pierre Bérégovoy (who was then minister of social Affairs) was established by order a new unemployment insurance agreement, reducing certain rights. “I see quite well the CGT and FO, say that in these conditions, it is the government to assume the responsibility of a convention lowering the level of compensation for unemployed person s. The government will then fill the vacuum and establish new rules, by order or by decree. A year of the presidential election, it’s a little messy…”

(1) Author of “Unemployment, reverse the curve”, published by the Institut Montaigne aux editions Belles Lettres, 2014.