Polymarket, a popular blockchain-based prediction market, has recently announced the appointment of Nate Silver, a well-known statistician, as an advisor. This move highlights the rapid growth of Polymarket, which currently accounts for 80% of the bets on U.S. elections.
Nate Silver, in addition to being a statistician, is also a writer and journalist. His goal is to assist Polymarket in enhancing its forecasting capabilities around news events. Shayne Coplan, the founder and CEO of Polymarket, expressed his excitement about welcoming Silver to the advisory board, emphasizing Silver’s significant contributions to mainstreaming political forecasting throughout his career.
The news of Nate Silver joining Polymarket as an advisor was first reported by Axios on Tuesday. Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket enables users to bet on various outcomes, with a particular focus on U.S. presidential elections. The platform has seen a staggering $262 million in bets on the 2024 presidential race, with a notable preference for former President Donald Trump among current users.
Despite its success, Polymarket is currently not accessible to U.S. users due to restrictions imposed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The company conducts all trades internationally and is exploring the possibility of introducing a regulated product in the U.S. Polymarket has facilitated over $400 million in trades this year, with significant activity observed during the first presidential debate.
Following a recent assassination attempt, Trump’s popularity on Polymarket surged to over 70%, a statistic that he frequently references on Truth Social. Polymarket, supported by $70 million in venture capital from investors like Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, is making strides in the prediction market space.
Nate Silver, known for his accurate forecasts during the 2008 elections on FiveThirtyEight, believes that prediction markets will become indispensable tools for investors looking to assess news and predict future outcomes. He stresses the importance of probabilities in decision-making, particularly in light of the ongoing debate within the Democratic Party regarding President Joe Biden’s potential re-election bid. While advising Polymarket, Silver will also continue his work on his Substack newsletter and a new book project.