Bitcoin (BTC) has been facing challenges in regaining bullish momentum, with the price hovering just above the critical $60,000 support level. Despite hitting an all-time high three months ago, the cryptocurrency experienced a drop to as low as $59,500 on Wednesday due to increased selling pressure from miners.
The ongoing miner capitulation, the longest observed since the summer of 2022, suggests the impact of the Bitcoin Halving supply-squeeze effect. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that Bitcoin miners have sold over 2,300 BTC in the past 3 days, totaling approximately $145 million.
In addition to miner selling pressure, recent BTC sales by the US and German governments have contributed to downward pressure on the market, keeping prices within the $60,000 to $70,000 consolidation range seen in recent months. Addresses linked to these governments have sent $737 million worth of BTC to exchanges like Coinbase, Bitstamp, and Kraken in various transactions.
As selling pressure from governments and miners eases over time, market observers anticipate a potential price recovery for BTC, following the typical post-Halving pattern that often leads to new all-time highs.
Market expert Scott Melker suggests that a crucial signal may be approaching, noting that a daily candle closing below the $60,300 level could trigger a bullish divergence. This would involve the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving out of oversold territory, similar to past situations when the price was around $26,000.
However, crypto analyst Andrew Kang warns about the significance of a potential loss of the four-month range on Bitcoin, drawing comparisons with the situation observed in May 2021 following a parabolic rally of BTC and altcoins. Kang suggests that a pullback to the low $50,000s or even the $40,000s could be possible, impacting the market significantly and leading to a period of choppy or downward price action before an upward trend is established.
At the time of writing, BTC has managed to reclaim the $60,350 level after briefly dipping below this crucial support. The cryptocurrency has erased gains in wider time frames and is currently showing a 12% price decrease in the monthly time frame.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin faces selling pressure from miners and governments, market experts and analysts are closely monitoring key levels and indicators to gauge the potential for a price recovery. The crypto market remains dynamic and subject to fluctuations, requiring investors to stay informed and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.