VanEck’s Matthew Sigel has confirmed that the Solana ETF proposal is a strategic investment based on the potential victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections. The application deadline for the ETF is set for March 2025, well after the November elections. Sigel responded with a simple confirmation when asked about this speculation.
Analysts believe that the approval odds for the Solana ETF under a Biden administration are close to zero, but if Trump were to win the election, the chances would be better, although not guaranteed. It is expected that Trump would appoint a new SEC chair, replacing the current chair, Gary Gensler.
One of the hurdles to the approval of the Solana ETF is the absence of a futures market on CME, which was crucial for the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Grayscale argued that surveillance sharing agreements similar to those in place for CME Bitcoin futures could be used for spot ETFs to prevent fraudulent activities.
Since the SEC has approved spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, Sigel believes that VanEck may not need to demonstrate a CME futures market for the Solana ETF. Bloomberg analysts also agree that a surveillance sharing agreement should be sufficient for approval, but they mentioned that new leadership at the SEC or a legislative act may be necessary for this approach to work.
It is worth noting that past ETF filings included surveillance-sharing agreements with exchanges like Coinbase, but these agreements were ultimately deemed unnecessary. The ongoing securities lawsuits against exchanges by the SEC further complicate these agreements between exchanges and ETF issuers.
Overall, the approval of the Solana ETF will depend on various factors, including the outcome of the US presidential elections, potential changes in SEC leadership, and the regulatory environment surrounding cryptocurrency exchanges. VanEck’s strategic investment in the Solana ETF reflects their confidence in the potential market opportunities that may arise under a Trump presidency.