Asset managers VanEck and 21Shares have recently filed applications to launch solana ETFs, making them the first firms to do so. These applications are seen as a risky move under the current Biden administration, but they are banking on the potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency next year.
The approval process for these solana ETFs will likely take some time, with a key deadline falling next year when Trump could potentially be back in office. Trump has shown a newfound interest in cryptocurrencies, which has increased the chances of these ETFs getting approved.
While bitcoin ETFs have been approved in the U.S., and Ethereum ETFs are still in the approval process, launching a solana ETF is a bold move. One of the main hurdles for the Biden administration’s Securities and Exchange Commission is the absence of a well-established regulated derivatives market for solana, unlike bitcoin and ether.
With Trump openly embracing digital assets and even accepting crypto donations for his campaign, the objections to solana ETFs may become irrelevant. The decision by VanEck and 21Shares to apply for solana ETFs is a strategic one, banking on a potential change in administration that is more favorable towards cryptocurrencies.
According to ETF analyst James Seyffart, VanEck’s filing for a solana ETF is like a call option on the outcome of the November election. The current SEC administration has a history of denying crypto ETFs due to the lack of a federally regulated futures market, but a new administration could change that.
VanEck’s timely submission of an S-1 filing for a potential SOL ETF is a strategic move, but it will only be significant if followed by a 19b-4 form submission. The SEC is required to respond to a 19b-4 within 240 days, setting a potential deadline for solana ETF approval in early 2025, under a Trump administration.
Current predictions on Polymarket suggest that Trump has a high chance of winning the presidential election, which could lead to significant changes in the SEC’s approach to crypto-related products. A Trump administration would likely replace the current SEC Chair and shift priorities towards a more crypto-friendly stance.
VanEck’s decision to move forward with a solana ETF application is a calculated risk, banking on the possibility of a more favorable regulatory environment under a potential Trump administration. The future of solana ETFs in the U.S. will depend on the outcome of the upcoming election and the subsequent regulatory changes that may follow.