BBVA Research does improve growth for the Autonomous Communities most exposed to tourism in 2022
MADRID, 18 Oct. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, Madrid and Extremadura will be the four autonomous communities with GDP growth above the national average in 2023, according to a BBVA Research report. The two island regions will grow next year by 2.2% and 1.9% respectively, while Madrid will do so by 1.5% and Extremadura by 1.2%.
This follows from this update of the growth forecast made by BBVA Research, which has revised Spain’s GDP downward from 1.8% to 1% for the following year. Of course, although the Balearic and Canary Islands remain the regions with the highest growth, they have also been affected by this review. Specifically, the Balearic Islands have lost 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous forecast and the Canary Islands one percentage point.
In any case, according to this latest update, after the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, Madrid and Extremadura, come Catalonia and Andalusia (0.9%); La Rioja (0.8%); Valencian Community, Cantabria, Castilla-La Mancha (0.7%); Aragon (0.6%); Castilla y León and Murcia (0.5%); Basque Country (0.3%); Navarra and Asturias (0.2%) and Galicia (0).
Despite this, the most affected communities in this review are those most dependent on tourism or those most exposed to the deployment of European funds. In the Balearic Islands (-1.2 p.p.), Extremadura (-1.1 p.p.) and the Valencian Community, Murcia, Madrid, Castilla-La Mancha, the Canary Islands and Andalusia (-1 p.p.) the revision is greater than in the GDP growth of the national set.
The growth forecast for 2023 for Cantabria (-0.4 p.p.) is also revised downwards, although to a lesser extent; Aragon and Asturias (-0.5 p.p.); Castilla y León and Navarra (-0.6 p.p.).
As reported by BBVA Research, experts expect inflation to reach a turning point, but it will still remain elevated for some time and will push up wages and costs. The regions that recorded the highest wage growth were those specialized in the production of exportable goods with a greater number of unfilled vacancies, such as the Basque Country, Navarra and Cantabria, which exposed them to greater losses in competitiveness.
Regarding employment, the report expects its annual growth in Spain to be 3.1% this year and slow down to 0.6% in 2023.
The autonomous communities that are going to register the highest growth in employment during 2022 are the Canary Islands (9.8%) and the Balearic Islands (6.7%), the Valencian Community (3.8%) and Andalusia (3.4%). ). On the contrary, Asturias (0.0%), La Rioja (0.7%) and Aragón (1.3%) will be the furthest behind. Compared to 2023, the Balearic and Canary Islands, both with 2.4%, and the Community of Madrid (1%) together with Murcia and Andalusia, with 0.9%, will lead the growth and on the opposite side are Castilla y León ( -0.9%), Galicia (-0.3%) and Cantabria (-0.3%), limited by the low dynamism of their economic activity.
However, Spain’s growth forecast for 2022 has been revised upwards by 0.3 percentage points, to 4.4%, thanks to a greater dynamism in tourism than expected a quarter ago, with the islands, the Valencian Community , Community of Madrid and Catalonia experienced the largest upward revisions.
The Canary Islands (9.3%) and the Balearic Islands (8%) will also be the ones that drive the most growth this year, followed by the Community of Madrid (4.7%) and Catalonia (4.4%). The furthest behind will be Castilla y León (2.9%), Galicia, Cantabria and Aragón (3.3%).
