Despite agreeing on a cap of 48.75 euros/MWh, it foresees a market price of 126 euros/MWh, to which 45 euros/MWh of compensation will have to be added
MADRID, 22 May. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The Government limits in its calculations to 15.3% the reduction to the average electricity consumer covered by the PVPC regulated rate during the 12 months of application of the approved cap on the generation of electricity from natural gas.
This is stated in the impact report that accompanies the decree law approved by the Government last Friday, April 13, to which Europa Press has had access.
Despite the fact that the decree law that regulates it is already in force as of its publication in the Official State Gazette, the mechanism to try to decouple the price of natural gas in the electricity market is at the expense of the authorization of the Commission European.
The agreement between Spain and Portugal with the community authorities sets an average cap of 48.75 euros/MWh in the twelve months of application of this mechanism –until May 31, 2023– which in the first six months will be 40 euros/MWh, to increase progressively to 70 euros/MWh.
The application of the cap at 48.75 euros/MWh, estimates the Government, will result in a resulting marginal matching price of 126.54 euros/MWh, to which must be added the cost of the adjustment to be paid by consumers, compensation to plants with capped prices, which on average will mean 45.17 euros/MWh, according to these estimates.
The sum of the total matching price plus the adjustment would result in a total of 171.70 euros/MWh, which by lowering the discount to consumers for congestion rents -difference between the electricity resulting from the ceiling in the Iberian Peninsula and that of France–, which the Government estimates at 5.71 euros/MWh on average, would end up resulting in 166 euros/MWh.
This figure would mean a reduction in the price of electricity of 22% compared to the 213 euros/MWh estimated at a natural gas price of 96 euros/MWh, a constant value considered by the Executive in its estimates.
When analyzing the impact of the measure on final consumer bills, the Government points out that the average reduction for an average consumer (2,400 kWh, 4.1 kW) covered by PVPC, with the current tax reduction and current toll values and electricity system charges, the average drop will be 15.3%.
It will be even lower for the first month, because despite having a lower gas cap (40 euros/MWh for the first six months), the Government estimates a reduction of 12.5%, although it will grow. The reason, explains the Executive, is that as the months go by, more term contracts will expire, so the compensation for the adjustment will be distributed among more agents.
In any case, the progressive increase in the cap in the second half of the year in which the mechanism is applied (from 45 euros/MWh in the seventh month to 70 euros/MWh in the last) will have an upward effect on the matching price and, therefore, , in the final price to be assumed by consumers (180 euros/MWh forecast in the last month of application, with a matching price in the pool of 165 euros/Mwh).
For the industrial consumer, totally exposed to the spot price, the Government estimates a reduction in the invoice of between 18% and 20%, the first month of the mechanism oscillating between 15% and 17%, and between 13 % and 15% the last.
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