Former President Donald Trump is currently leading the race for the presidency, according to the latest data from Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market. Trump has a 64% chance of winning, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 34%. This marks a 1% increase for Trump and a significant 4% rise for Harris over the past week.
The swing states, which are crucial for any presidential candidate, also show a clear preference for Trump and the Republican party. In states like Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Republicans have a significant lead over Democrats. This indicates that Trump’s support is solidifying in regions that have historically determined the outcome of presidential elections.
In addition to the presidential race, the balance of power projections also favor the Republicans. The market predicts that there is a 74% chance of Republicans winning the Senate and a 53% chance of Democrats winning the House. There is also a 40% likelihood of a Republican sweep, while a Democratic sweep is less likely at 17%.
Vice President Harris remains the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination, with former First Lady Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton trailing behind. The forecast for the Democratic vice-presidential nominee shows a more competitive field, with Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, and Roy Cooper leading the pack.
The market also predicts a 53% chance of Harris winning the popular vote and only a 36% chance of Democrats winning the Presidency. The odds for a debate between Harris and Trump before the elections are falling, while the odds of President Joe Biden finishing his term have risen.
Overall, the data from Polymarket suggests that Trump has a strong chance of winning the presidency, with solid support in key swing states and a favorable balance of power projection for the Republican party. The upcoming election is shaping up to be a closely watched and highly contested race.
