Donald Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election have seen a significant increase on the Polymarket prediction market. Traders on Polymarket are now giving the former president a 55.8% chance of winning, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 43.8%. This surge in Trump’s odds comes as more than $1.6 billion has been wagered on the November election through the platform.
The rise in Trump’s chances is notable, as they have reached levels not seen since President Joe Biden announced he would not seek reelection, paving the way for Vice President Harris to potentially take over. Another prediction market, Kalshi, which recently gained approval to list contracts based on U.S. elections, also shows Trump leading over Harris with a 52% to 48% margin. PredictIt, on the other hand, indicates a narrower lead for Trump with 53% to 52%.
It is worth mentioning that Polymarket is not technically accessible to Americans, although users utilizing VPNs may be able to bypass this restriction. On the other hand, Kalshi and PredictIt are permitted in the U.S. for users to participate in election prediction trading.
As a disclosure, it is important to note that there have been updates to the privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and personal information sharing practices. CoinDesk, the media outlet reporting on these prediction market trends, upholds a strict set of editorial policies to ensure integrity, editorial independence, and freedom from bias in its publications. CoinDesk is affiliated with the Bullish group, which has investments in digital asset businesses. It is possible that CoinDesk employees, including journalists like Nick Baker, may receive compensation in the form of equity from the Bullish group. Nick Baker, who serves as CoinDesk’s deputy editor-in-chief and is a recipient of the Loeb Award, holds over $1,000 worth of BTC and SOL.
The growing lead of Donald Trump over Kamala Harris on prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt reflects the shifting sentiments and predictions surrounding the upcoming presidential election. As the race continues to unfold, these platforms provide insights into the evolving landscape of political outcomes. It will be interesting to see how these predictions align with the actual results of the election when the time comes.
