gradual decrease, accumulated employment-unemployment… The government sends out its roadmap to the social partners today.

This is the beginning of a marathon. Four months of negotiation, in order to review in depth the functioning of the unemployment insurance. A huge construction site which is expected to give birth to real change for jobseekers in the first half of 2019.

discussions between employers and trade unions will be under the leadership of the government. A launch meeting of the debates is scheduled for this Friday, September 21, the ministry of Labour and a circular must be sent to the social partners. This document must indicate the contours of their future exchanges.

If it seems unrealistic or too demanding, unions and employers may decide to refuse the negotiation. Whatever happens , the government will take back the hand in the event of failure. The margin of manoeuvre of the social actors is therefore limited. “I suspect especially the government we set a trap. We look forward to the letter of framing, but I fear that it is goals unattainable”, has already denounced Laurent Berger, leader of the CFDT in the newspaper The Opinion of September 16.

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Rumpled from having been pressurized when the first social reforms of the quinquennium (orders, act professional future…) carried out at no load, trade unions and employers wished to reaffirm their dominant position in the debate. Considered for a time, the track of a sacred union in the face of the government seems to be abandoned today. According to information from Figaro, the leaders have not been able to find a common position to push the front.

many of the subjects Of explosives and sources of discord are indeed again on the table and make consensus almost impossible. Before taste of the hot topics, which should be realized for job seekers in the first half of 2019….

1. The cumulation rules employment-unemployment

The government is determined to review the calculation rules for collecting both a salary linked to reduced activity and the allocation of the return to employment (ARE). According to figures from the Unédic, this is about 865 000 people. “In total, the accumulated employment-allowance runs around 1200 euros per month on average,” explains Michel Beaugas FO. It is therefore a public rather precarious that we target.”

This back-and-forth between employment and unemployment (also referred to as “permittence” allow job seekers to keep a foot in the labour market. The reduced activity is theoretically designed as a springboard for a return to employment. “In the short term, it aims to support the recovery of a business, even part-time or low paid, while avoiding that the latter does not result in a financial loss related to the end of the compensation (with cumulative part). In the longer term, the near as well preserved with the labour market, promotes a better professional integration”, explains the Dares in a study published in September 2017.

But, limit of the device, “several econometric attempts have shown that the reduced activity could be, in some cases, associated with trajectories of confinement in the precariousness”, continue the authors. For the government, it is mostly a brake on the return to employment. And it is necessary to change the rules. For the minister of Labour, Muriel Pénicaud, it is necessary to “put in place an unemployment insurance, which imprisons more people in poverty and encourages them to resume a sustainable job.”

In terms of permittence, the social partners have already modified the rules of calculation, it is not so long… The agreement negotiated in April 2017 for a three years fixed already in new conditions this subject. “We provided 400 million in savings, grieves Michel Beaugas. But here, we must review everything so that there is no urgency, apart from the political…” other avenues are also possible, such as the limitation or suppression of the possibility of cumulation.

2. The bonus-malus contracts short

This is the corollary of the joint employment-unemployment. Because, who says of short-term, said companies that abuse it. On the union side, we refuse to cut corners on the rights of the unemployed, but it is hoped that the bonus-malus taxing businesses too intensive CDD, see the light of day. This the employers refused. “I doubt that the government uses words which we are to shine from the beginning,” said François Asselin, of the CPME. Employers may refuse to negotiate if the text is overly restrictive or if the device is “a gas plant”.

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The executive is speaking, however, this bonus-malus for months. It was initially launched negotiations in the professional branches the largest consumer contracts short in order to encourage the actors to agree on the subject. But he has changed his gun to the shoulder. The device will be-t-he clearly enshrined in the framework document ? Will there be enough of a deterrent ? What criteria could be retained ? The track of an increased taxation for companies which “send” a lot of people at the job center could be retained. But employers may rely on the increase in the cost of the work…

3. The degressivity of the allowances ch&oiarc;mage

the Other track being considered : the degressivity of unemployment benefits. Today, job seekers are compensated for two years (24 months) for the same amount (not more than 75% of the daily wage of reference). For senior citizens over 55 years of age, it lasts three years. If the degression is introduced, the amount of the benefit perceived by the job seeker will decline regularly, and by the bearings. The goal : to encourage the return to employment, say the defenders of this option, among whom were the president of the Medef, Geoffroy Roux de Bézieux and Muriel Pénicaud, which ensures not having “no taboo” on the issue.

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For the critics of the system, on the contrary, it is ineffective. A number of works of economists but also of the reports of the Court of accounts go in this direction. “The economic studies tend […] to show that the implementation of an allowance degressive creates savings, but does not improve the overall effectiveness of the system of unemployment insurance”, explained the magistrate in 2016.

For unions, the decline of the rights, either in duration or value, is a red line insurmountable. If this condition is expressly laid, they may refuse to negotiate. That is not to say that the government does not impose, in fine.

4. The overall budget and the debt of Unédic

the sinews of war will be financial. Employers and trade unions are waiting with trepidation to know the financial trajectory set by the government. The numbers will be decisive. “Everything is going to be the result of the quantum of savings that we will be asked, explains Michel Beaugas. Previously, the collection of employee and employer contributions we provided recipes. But now, it is the State that has the hand on this topic since it is funded by the CSG. It remains for us that the spending as a lever action…” Load therefore the social partners to find where to draw.

“The challenge is to know who is going to finance what,” explains François Asselin, of the CPME. And what prerogatives the State we leave it.” For the leader of the employers, the government can not ask the impossible. “If we have to finance workers become eligible for unemployment insurance, but also the functioning of the employment or the compensation of the seasonal workers and frontier workers while achieving even more savings than those already decided upon, we will not be able to get there.”

in Addition to the economies imposed, the social partners also know that they will have to find solutions to finance the future allocation for the long-term unemployed, as promised by the government and is intended to replace the current allowance of specific solidarity (ASS), for the time funded by the State. “This is $ 2.6 billion per year, if the alarm Denis Gravouil of the CGT. And we will also need to find a way to finance the arrival of the resigned and self-employed in the unemployment insurance and that is $ 500 million more.”

The rumors were counting on $ 800 million to a billion euros of savings imposed by year to act on the deficit and eventually start deleveraging. “In total, that would be four billion per year, complete Denis Gravouil. This is money that will have an impact on the rights of the unemployed.”

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against the backdrop of these discussions, the State is concerned about the weight of the debt of Unédic, which stood at 35 billion euros. The minister of Labour has warned the world on the 7th of September last : “The debate will focus on the level and speed of deleveraging”. For Michel Beaugas of FO, it is a false problem. “The financial trajectories of Unédic are encouraging and it is expected to accumulate surpluses in 2020 and 2021, which will soak up a little of that debt.” But, again, the willingness of the social partners is extremely limited. Now, they negotiate, and the government decided…