MADRID, 12 Abr. (EUROPA PRESS) –

Inversis has ruled out a banking crisis like the one that happened in 2008 because the entities have better balance sheets, lack of concentration of toxic assets and high levels of solvency and liquidity.

In any case, the firm has warned that “the impact that the rise in rates will have on the banks’ balance sheets remains to be known.” In this way, “it cannot be ruled out” that another bank bailout takes place and bank regulation and supervision still has room for improvement.

After the latest turmoil in the sector, which has caused the collapse of four medium-sized banks in the United States and Credt Suisse in Switzerland, the situation “seems to be beginning to stabilize,” according to Inversis, although caution remains.

The entity’s experts have highlighted that Europe “continues to run into difficulties” in curbing the rise in prices, with inflation at 8.5%. “The rise in food and underlying inflation have neutralized the fall in energy and supply chain prices. The inflationary jump in services is also especially notable,” they value from Inversis.

Regarding other geographies, in the United States the inflation data is 6%, so it “continues to give cause for concern”, although with more optimistic expectations. In China, the evolution of prices remains moderate, although waiting for a possible takeoff of activity after the end of the restrictive policies.

Regarding economic growth prospects, for Inversis the US economy shows signs of resilience thanks to the good performance of employment and private consumption that are leading to upward revisions for 2023, after an estimated closing of last year in 2.7%.

In the case of Europe, GDP continues to show “growth tending to zero” with a close of 2022 of around 1.7%. Inversis considers that this is explained by two factors. On the one hand, private consumption, which suffers from greater uncertainty, inflation and the impact of monetary policies, and on the other, the fall in investment. In any case, the first indicators of the year “provide an improvement in both parameters”.

China, for its part, “is fully entering into an economic reopening and that will have an impact” on global growth, more in the short term in the Asian area.

Likewise, for the Inversis experts, the latest decisions by both the Fed and the ECB “confirm their determination to take monetary policy to its ultimate consequences” to get prices to align with long-term objectives. Thus, from the entity they consider that the cycle of rate increases could be extended for a few more months.

Given this environment, Inversis’s strategy for fixed income is to maintain “adjusted” durations in the short and intermediate tranches of sovereign bonds, while in the medium term the duration is extended pending possible rate cuts in 2024.

In credit, although the risk premiums of corporate issuers have rebounded in recent months, they are within historical averages. For this reason, Inversis maintains its commitment to quality bonds, from defensive sectors and without exposure to systemic risk. There is also a preference for the European ‘high yield’ and in the higher quality segment.

In equities, Inversis’s strategy is to reduce exposure to shares in advanced economies while waiting for greater clarity in the evolution of corporate profits. Also waiting for how the financial sector evolves, it is committed to underweighting in sectors more exposed to systemic risks.