This Monday it was ready: The long-awaited Bitcoin Futures on the New York stock exchange Bakkt were released to the trade. But what happened? The trading volume was 71 Bitcoin in the first 24 hours is disappointingly low. The rush was. Instead, the price of Bitcoin crashed on the following day in the deep. What false assumptions have been made about the Bakkt Futures and why the impact on the Bitcoin price is for the time being, negligible. A Comment.
By Sven Wagenknecht
On the 27. September 2019BTC$8.007,86 -4.06%part Facebook Twitter LinkedIn xing mail misconception # 1: A higher bid automatically creates a higher demand
Now, the assumption is that financial products that are placed on a new base value, can also lead to increases in the price, is not per se wrong. If a high demand exists, which previously could not be supported sufficiently, this is quite plausible, Long Position and high trading volume are provided. There are, however, already since the end of 2017 Bitcoin Futures of the stock exchanges, the CME and CBOE Chicago. These provide a sufficient supply for the existing demand for Bitcoin Futures. Significant impact on the Bitcoin price this previously but not had. The CME/CBOE Futures capturing on the one hand, a relatively low volume of trade. Still more significant is the fact that the settlement of the forward contracts in US $ and not in BTC, however. Their influence on the Bitcoin market can be, at most, of indirect nature.
Although the Bakkt Futures are designed in a different way – their delivery and the collateral is physically – nevertheless, this should not automatically lead to a rush. Rather than in U.S. dollars, the Bitcoin Futures are settled at the end of the term by Bitcoin itself. Whether this so-called physical collateral is really in demand from investors is so strong, may be in doubt after the weak Start to.
furthermore, it must establish a demand first. So it is perfectly normal that Futures can not be recorded in the first trading week of tons of volumes for itself. In part, this has practical reasons. It is common that many brokers in new futures contracts for the time being, to hold back, to observe from the side line of the Trade. Especially in the case of a so-exotic base value like Bitcoin, where the uncertainty is high, then it is a restraint on the Broker more than understandable.
misconception No. 2: The institutional investors to catapult the courses up
It is no secret that it is not the money of the small investors, but the money of institutional investors is driving the financial markets in one direction or the other. Now the proportion of institutional investors in the crypto-market compared to other markets is low. As the reason for this under-representation is the lack of regulated products will be identified. The Narrative of “more regulated financial products lead to more institutional investors,” does not bear the complex processes in the financial markets. For one, it is on the regulated product. In the case of an exchange-traded index Fund (ETF) may be true rather than a certificate, respectively in the Future.
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furthermore, the stock markets must have liquidity large enough so that you can place according to larger volumes. An institutional Investor who makes two million dollars no Trade, will probably make barely a buy or sell order on a Bakkt stock exchange, whose trading volume or liquidity in a few hundred thousand or a few million dollars.
Instead, classic Custody solutions to attract the Big Money. So, the institutional Trustee service of Coinbase, the largest American crypto-Broker is pleased, for example, about the rain capital inflow. Since the crypto market is basically still much too small and unpredictable for institutional investors, Over-The-Counter transactions via a Broker site connected to an Trustee, so far the safest and most preferred solution.
The interesting reason for institutional investors to go into Futures or other certificate solutions, lies in the opportunity to position themselves short. In the long term, Futures and option certificates with an important admixture in crypto-portfolio, in order to reduce the volatility.
misconception no. 3: What lasts long, becomes finally want to
the announcement that The big Intercontinental Exchange in New York with Bakkt implement a stock exchange for Bitcoin Futures, it’s been over a year. Since then, is regularly reported Updates and progress. As exciting as that may be, on the one hand, be so problematic, so an excessive expectation arises. In particular, the permanent Bitcoin ETF to Cancel the US securities regulator, the SEC, led to stylized Bakkt to a false replacement for Bitcoin ETFs highly. If wishful thinking over realism prevails, then the disappointment is inevitable.
in Short: The new Bitcoin Futures of Bakkt constitute a source of enrichment and progress for the crypto-Ecosystem. Finally, it is the first Futures, the move effectively Bitcoins, instead of this form only to. However, you are not able to influence the market environment. If the mood is currently rather gloomy, and the bears have the upper hand, then the new way to trade the Bakkt Futures does not change anything. Nevertheless, it is important to expand the offer in the crypto-Ecosystem further. Whether it is financial products, exchanges, or STO platforms. Without an attractive offer can develop in the future, no demand effectively.
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