Bitcoin will catch up in the coming year, Gold as a knappstes Good of mankind. The Bank shall be illuminated in a study of the Stock-to-Flow ratio of Bitcoin – and a bullish forecast for the Bitcoin price in the coming year.
By Christopher clover
At the 2. October 2019BTC$8.332,04 recognizes 0.47% part Facebook Twitter LinkedIn xing mail
Bayerische Landesbank (BayernLB) Bitcoin as an Asset that was designed as an “ultra-hard money,” and this claim has so far also been largely fulfilled. The BayernLB establishes a striking connection between the Bitcoin price and the “hardness” of Bitcoin. In this context, it should be confirmed after the next Bitcoin Halving in may 2020, this could promote the Bitcoin rate in the Region of 90,000 US dollars. The findings of a study, the BayernLB on 30. September has been published.
In this, the Bank applies the Stock-to-Flow method – a tried and tested heuristic for the evaluation of Commodities on Bitcoin. The latest circulation amount of the asset (Stock) is divided by the annual added amount, to determine its “rarity”. According to this metric, Gold with a Stock-to-Flow-value (SF) is not yet of 50 of the rarest Asset. Bitcoin is a SF from the current 25 (17, 5 million BTC / 0.7 million BTC) is currently about on a par with silver. With the next halving of Mining Rewards in may 2020, Bitcoin will reach a SF of about 50 and could come up Gold the rarest Good from the Base.
Bitcoin Gold from the ranking – with seven miles
boots That Bitcoin is in the process of Gold with seven miles boots, outdo, sees, BayernLB in its digital nature, well-founded. This enables a comparison to Gold is “unfair and services engineering”. This means the Bitcoin Protocol, set the value of a maximum circulation amount of 21 million BTC, as well as the regular half of the “eligible amount” in the Form of the Mining Reward Halving. The large number of network participants to make a change in this deflationary approach is highly unlikely to:
Due to the “supply-engineering” it should be possible for Bitcoin, a similar Stock-to-Flow-to reach value, as Gold has it today, already next year – so in just 11 years. Is guaranteed by Satoshi specified Range of services through a global Peer-to-Peer network, and the centripetal forces of such a large network: to talk to The whole network a new service profile (: to move Software-Protocol), is as good as impossible, especially in the case of a inflationäreren profile, the incentives of each individual Node operator would be the opposite (this would dilute the value of your Bitcoin).
The BayernLB establishes a striking connection between Bitcoin price and the Stock-to-Flow-value.
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so Far, the Bitcoin has developed-rate linearly to its Stock-to-Flow-value. You should confirm this even after the next Reward Halving, could Bitcoins voyage to the moon:
The most Exciting is of course the view in the future. So will increase Bitcoins Stock-to-Flow-value – in may 2020 – that is, after the next Halving-dramatically: currently about 25.8 to almost 53. The Stock-to-Flow value of Gold currently at around 58, however, will be in may 2020, if at all, only marginally higher. If you add this may of value for Bitcoins Stock-to-Flow in the model, out comes a dizzying price of about 90,000 US dollars per Bitcoin. Therefore would be priced in the current price of around US $ 8,000 of the upcoming Halving effect is hardly (in the current model value is approximately US $ 7,500),
according to the forecast of the BayernLB.
The Bank has in its SF-analysis of Bitcoins, among other things, by Saifedean Ammous and his work, “The Bitcoin Standard” to be inspired. Ammous is considered to be one of the first analysts who applied the Stock-to-Flow method for determining the value of Bitcoin. Apparently Ammous has with his appearance at the Bank in June with a lasting impression of the bankers left.
More on the subject of Stock-to-Flow Ratio and why Bitcoin is the scarcest Good of mankind, you can find here.
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