MADRID, 27 Abr. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The episode of heat typical of the month of July that is affecting Spain this last week of April and that will not end until Sunday, May 1, has pulverized fifty records for maximum or minimum temperatures in a large part of the country, a phenomenon that it has a recurrence period of once every 150 or 200 years, according to meteorologists from eltiempo.es
At a press conference, the meteorologist Mar Gómez explained that the factors that favor these high values ??are the stability on the surface due to the anticyclone, which inhibits the formation of clouds and prevents the development of precipitation, which gives rise to a High insolation, with clear skies, a high rate of solar radiation and a very high or extreme risk of fire in a large part of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands.
“This stability does not encounter any obstacles,” Gómez points out, explaining how a sum of factors causes an overheating of the air mass that can be compared to “an oven” that has triggered temperatures to record values.
For now, until Wednesday afternoon “more than 20 records” of maximum temperatures in April have been broken, such as at the Córdoba airport, where it reached 35 degrees Celsius (ºC), when the previous record was 34ºC. In Jerez de la Frontera, which has data from 1946, its old record was exceeded by more than one degree and records of very high minimum temperatures have also been recorded, such as at the Zaragoza and Lugo airports.
Both stations, which have data from the 1940s and 1950s respectively, recorded a minimum of 15.9ºC in Zaragoza and 14.2ºC in Lugo. “They are not tropical nights but they are records,” insisted the meteorologist who hopes that this Thursday and Friday there will be minimum temperatures that will not drop below 20ºC.
Precisely, within the framework of this episode, he foresees that this Thursday and Friday will be the warmest days of the week with maximums that will “easily” reach 37ºC in Córdoba; that will exceed 30ºC in a large part of the peninsular interior, in areas of the northern plateau and in the Ebro valley.
On Friday they will rise again, although in fewer areas, but they may also lose “some degrees” in Extremadura, the Cantabrian Sea, in the east of the Peninsula, in the Balearic Islands, Galicia and on the northern plateau. However, they will once again see 37ºC in the Guadalquivir valley and 36ºC in La Mancha, Albacete.
As of Saturday, a “thermal relief” will arrive in the west of the Peninsula and in points of the extreme north, but they will rise in the Mediterranean, where, for example, in Murcia they can reach 37ºC.
The meteorologist predicts that the “most important” and almost general drop will come on Sunday, when it will go above 30ºC in the interior of the peninsula to 25ºC. “It is a much more bearable value”, commented Gómez who, however, points out that they will continue to exceed 30ºC in Extremadura, Andalusia or Murcia.
But this relief in temperatures will be temporary because it is expected that they will rebound significantly on Tuesday, but not as much as this week.
“This heat is more typical of the months of July than of the end of April. And we are also noticing it at night. The minimums in some towns do not drop below 20ºC,” he indicated.
In this context of heat and without precipitation, it warns that the risk of fires will increase during these days to a situation that “could perfectly correspond to the summer months”, in which the “very high and extreme” risk predominates in many zones.
In fact, he has added that the risk is extreme this Thursday in areas of Andalusia, southern Extremadura, eastern areas of Castilla-La Mancha, Valle del Ebro, in the interior of the Valencian Community, inland Murcia, but that it is expanding on Friday, then to the rest of Castilla-La Mancha, areas of southern Aragon, northern Catalonia, northern Aragon, Community of Madrid.
“The maps are quite impressive,” also warns the Eltiempo.es meteorologist Mario Picazo who warns of fires as serious as in a heat episode in the summer months.
In the same way, Gómez points out the high rate of ultraviolet radiation and calls for caution at this time when the population is exposed to the sun with less awareness of its danger.
An “extraordinary” situation like the current one, with thermal anomalies in many areas of more than 15 degrees Celsius above normal, “is not usual.” For example, in Seville, the absolute maximum in the month of April was reached in 1997 with 35.4ºC and they have never reached 37ºC. According to some statistical distribution calculations, reaching 37ºC in April is a value that would be reached “once every little more than 100 years” and the 38ºC, which could be reached in this episode, would be “even more exceptional, it would be reached approximately 200 years”.
In the case of Madrid, only 31ºC is reached in April once every 200 years; in Zaragoza, once every 200 years it can reach 33ºC. Therefore, he insists that this is a “very atypical, very anomalous situation that could occur at most two or three times” but that now it could become “a new normal due to climate change” something that currently has a period of return of more than 200 years.
Looking ahead to the month of May, eltiempo.es predicts that the above-normal heat will continue and, therefore, Europe must prepare “for a scorching summer with Spain in the hottest top.” For now, on Sunday the light rains will continue in the north of Galicia, the rest of the Cantabrian communities, also in La Rioja and north of Navarra. Again this day, storms could form in the Pyrenees and also in the northeast of Catalonia, without ruling them out in the Balearic Islands.
The month of May will begin with rainfall that could affect the northeast of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands. The north of the Basque Country and Navarra, in the Pyrenees and the east of Catalonia and Menorca could still accumulate a few liters, both on Monday and Tuesday, where it could rain less in the same areas and where rainfall could intensify in Balearic Islands.
Regarding prolonged drought, meteorologists are due to the presence of persistent anticyclones that have blocked the passage of the Atlantic storms that usually arrive in Spain in winter and spring.
Likewise, at higher levels of the atmosphere, ridges have remained intermittently, which are atmospheric structures that result in greater stability, since the dry air that descends and heats up when it reaches the surface.
With regard to the near future regarding rainfall, Picazo points out that both in Spain and in other areas of the Mediterranean the trend towards a drier climate will continue. How much drought we have will depend on how much we warm the global temperature compared to pre-industrial periods.
Picazo explains that the greater the warming, the greater the number of dry periods and their duration. In a scenario of warming of 2 to 3ºC compared to pre-industrial periods, Spain and many other areas of the Mediterranean are experiencing an increasingly drier scenario. On the contrary, he predicts that other parts of northern Europe and even many tropical regions will see precipitation increase.
