Joe Biden has surpassed Kamala Harris as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for president, according to traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket. After his first press conference in months, Biden’s odds of winning the nomination shot up to 51%, a significant increase from 33% earlier in the day. Currently, his odds are sitting at 45%. On the other hand, Harris’ chances dropped to as low as 37% before bouncing back to 42%.
In terms of the general election, Biden’s probability of victory in November is at 13%, slightly lower than Harris’ 15%. However, the favorite to win the White House remains former President and likely Republican nominee, Donald Trump. The market gives Trump a 61% chance of victory, with “Yes” shares in Polymarket’s contract for Trump trading at 61 cents.
During his press conference, Biden stumbled over his words a few times and even mistakenly referred to Harris as “Vice President Trump.” Despite these slip-ups, he delved into foreign policy matters following a NATO summit. He also passionately discussed the issue of gun violence in America, raising his voice as he spoke about the impact on American children. While affirming his commitment to staying in the race, Biden acknowledged the concerns about his age and cognitive health. Prominent Democrats and donors, including actor George Clooney, have called for him to step aside, but he remains determined to continue.
The upcoming election holds significant stakes on Polymarket, with hundreds of millions of dollars at play. Despite having to restrict U.S. users due to regulatory issues, the platform has seen a surge in activity. Bets are secured through smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain.
As the race for the Democratic nomination heats up, Biden’s momentum continues to grow, while Harris faces some setbacks. With the election drawing closer, all eyes are on the evolving dynamics of the political landscape and the predictions on platforms like Polymarket. Stay tuned for more updates on this unfolding story.