President Joe Biden’s chances of withdrawing from the U.S. presidential election are on the rise, reaching 68% according to traders on Polymarket. This increase comes after Biden revealed that he had tested positive for Covid-19 and stated that he would reconsider his candidacy if faced with a medical condition.
During an interview with BET News, Biden mentioned that he would reassess his campaign if he were to experience a serious medical issue. This statement has caused a stir in the prediction market, with the odds of Biden dropping out hitting a high of 70%.
The speculation about Biden potentially withdrawing from the race first began after a debate with Republican candidate Donald Trump, where Biden’s performance was widely criticized. He later attributed his poor showing to jet lag and a busy travel schedule.
Despite initial concerns about Biden’s candidacy, the odds of him dropping out decreased following a PR campaign emphasizing his commitment to running for president. Calls from prominent figures like George Clooney for Biden to step down briefly pushed the odds back up, only to see them fluctuate once more.
With the upcoming Democratic convention to confirm their nominee in August, the likelihood of Biden dropping out before then is currently at 59%. In comparison, Polymarket’s national election tracker currently places Trump at 64% and Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, at 19%.
These developments suggest that uncertainty surrounding Biden’s candidacy continues to persist, with various factors influencing the odds of him staying in the race. As the election draws nearer, traders and analysts will be closely monitoring the situation to see how it unfolds.