U.S. President Joe Biden’s recent performance in the presidential debate has caused quite a stir in the prediction markets. The New York Times and a CBS/YouGov poll suggest that there are doubts about his cognitive health, leading to a drop in his odds of becoming President on Polymarket from 33.5% to 18%. On the other hand, Trump’s lead has solidified to 63%.
Following the debate, trading volume on Polymarket surged, especially in contracts related to the possibility of Biden dropping out of the race entirely. The odds of him bowing out increased to 44 cents post-debate, indicating a 44% probability of that happening. However, news that Biden was spending the weekend with his family to discuss his campaign’s future pushed the odds up to 50%. The White House later clarified that the trip was pre-planned, leading to odds leveling out at just over 40%.
Despite the speculation, President Biden remains determined to stay in the race and fight harder. Serious political bettors have taken an interest in these markets, with large sums of money being wagered on various political outcomes, including the U.S. Presidential Election and the popular vote.
In the realm of cryptocurrency, traders on prediction markets have varying opinions on Bitcoin’s price movement. While short-term stability is expected, with prices projected to be above $61,000 by July 5, there are indications of a potential correction before a rally that could test Bitcoin’s all-time high. Contracts on platforms like Kalshi suggest a chance of Bitcoin dipping below $50,000 by the end of 2024, but also a possibility of it reaching $75,000 or higher by the end of this year.
Meanwhile, the aerospace giant Boeing is facing issues with its first space capsule, Starliner, which is currently stuck at the International Space Station due to technical problems. Bettors are skeptical about the astronauts departing on the Starliner by July 21, with only an 11% chance predicted. It’s worth noting that the market specifies that the astronauts must depart on Boeing’s Starliner for the contract to be resolved.
Overall, the recent events surrounding President Biden’s debate performance, Bitcoin price predictions, and Boeing’s space troubles have generated significant activity in prediction markets, offering a glimpse into the sentiments and expectations of traders and bettors across various scenarios.