Two out of three believe that Russia will end up winning the war and almost 80% rule out that there is a nuclear attack
MADRID, 24 Oct. (EUROPA PRESS) –
Almost half of Spaniards consider that the EU is not doing enough in the face of the war in Ukraine, but they are divided as to what European action should be, with 55% betting on stopping importing Russian gas and 48% they opt to send more military material and financial aid.
This is what emerges from the study ‘France and Spain: crossed views and attitudes towards the European Union and the war in Ukraine’ carried out by the Elcano Royal Institute, according to which 47% of Spaniards consider that the response is being insufficient, compared to to 34% of the French.
For 38% of Spaniards, the EU is doing what needs to be done, a figure that rises to 42% in the case of the French, while in the opinion of 15% it should not be so involved -24% of the Gauls see it this way–.
According to the survey, ideology is a determining factor in this response, since among those who define themselves on the right it is more common to consider that the EU does not do enough than among those who say they are on the left (52% compared to 44%) .
Among those who consider that European countries should do more, 55% of Spaniards are in favor of stopping importing Russian gas immediately, 48% support sending more military material and financial aid, and 46% are inclined to negotiate with Russia. Only 21% believe that the EU should directly participate in the war by sending troops.
In the case of the French, 58% are committed to sending more military material and financial aid, 50% prefer to stop importing Russian gas, 39% are committed to negotiating with Moscow and 27% believe that they should participate in the conflict .
Regarding the sending of military aid, 27% of Spaniards consider that it should be maintained until Russia completely withdraws from Ukraine, including Crimea and Donbas, while 25% maintain that it should be done until Moscow withdraws from the territories occupied since February 24.
16% believe that it should be done until Russia can no longer attack any country, while 12% think that military support should be stopped. 21% respond with “I don’t know” to this question. In this area, the responses of the French are very similar to those of the Spanish.
As for how the conflict will evolve, 66% of Spaniards believe that Russia will end up prevailing, compared to 34% who believe that Ukraine will do so, a figure higher than that of the French, with 54% who believe that Moscow will win. and 46% that kyiv will do it.
78% of Spaniards believe that nuclear weapons will not be used in the conflict, compared to 73% of the French, while 22% believe that there will be a nuclear attack -27% among the Gauls-, and 60% believe that the war will not spread beyond Ukraine, compared to 40% who fear that it will spread to Europe — 53% and 47% in the French case.
Spaniards are pessimistic about a quick solution to the war, since only 27% see this happening in months, compared to 73% who consider that “it will last a long time”. In the case of the French, their pessimism is even more pronounced, with 21% believing that there will be a solution in months and 79% believing that it will take a long time.
Age is a very influential factor in terms of expectations regarding the evolution of the war both in France and in Spain, since the younger ones are much more pessimistic and more inclined to see Russia as the winner and fearing that the conflict will spread.
As for how Europe will look after the war, Spaniards believe that it will be more united (65%), more fearful (68%), stronger militarily (65%), more autonomous in energy (60%) and more dependent on States United (64%). In the case of the French surveyed, the data is quite similar, although only 44% believe that Europe will be more dependent on the United States.
Worldwide, both the Spanish and the French believe that four great powers will come out of this war — the United States, China, the EU and Russia –, with 45% in the Spanish case and 46% in the French case, while around 30% believe that there will be three –the United States, China and the EU– and just over 20% believe that there will be two –the United States and China–.
Elcano also asked the Spanish and French about the request for entry into the EU made by Ukraine, to which the Twenty-seven have already given the status of a candidate country. Here, Spaniards are more inclined to make an exception and speed up entry, an option favored by 44% –36% in the French case–, while 56% consider that they must comply with the process just like other candidates –64% of the French–.
Finally, regarding the international leaders who are involved in one way or another in the conflict, the best valued, both by the Spanish and the French, is the Ukrainian president, Volodimir Zelenski. The Spanish give it a 6.1 out of 10 and the French a 5.8.
In second position is the president of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, with a 5.6, followed by the US president, Joe Biden, with a 4.9. Following is the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, while the last is the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, with 1.3. Among the French, all the leaders have a somewhat lower rating than among the Spanish, the case of the Russian president being especially significant, who stands at 2 out of 10.
The survey was carried out on a sample of 1,001 interviews in both countries, in the case of Spain between July 8 and 13 and in France between July 19 and 25. The margin of error is 3.2% and the confidence margin is 95.5%. The survey is the fourth to be carried out by virtue of the collaboration between Diálogo, the Spanish-French Friendship Association, and the Elcano Royal Institute.
