Before the weekend of the Bitcoin showed the weakness of course is something that makes his Performance temporarily on the level of the comparison assets decreased. Nevertheless, the cumulative Performance dominated since August of 2018, and again the comparison of the assets.
Dr. Philipp Giese
17. June 2019BTC$9.268,00 0.83%part Facebook Twitter LinkedIn xing mail
Since the beginning of November, we keep track of how Bitcoin fails in comparison to traditional markets. This is not a trivial comparison of the Performance. Institutional investors are interested in Bitcoins claim to be a non-correlated, stable Asset, extremely. In a guest contribution on the €uro Fund research dedicated to BTC-ECHO the question of whether Bitcoin and the strongly correlated crypto market would be a good addition to classic portfolio. This question is the institutional investors in the crypto-market is interested in, less of a hope of a new Bull Run like the end of 2017.
in Order to clarify the Suitability of classical Portfolios can be considered an Investor in various sizes. For one, it would be interesting to see whether and how much Bitcoin is linked to traditional markets. On the other, a stable Asset for a long-term Investment is attractive. The volatility of the asset do not need to be extremely low. You should have at least over a longer period of time, a certain degree of stability.
We pay attention in this series of articles, therefore the correlation in the last month, on a sliding correlation of a continuous volatility and a sliding Performance. The last three values are calculated for each day based on the last 30 days. As a comparison, assets in traditional markets, we consider indices S&P 500, Nikkei and Dax, as well as Oil and Gold.
Before we look at the data, there is preliminary important Info: The analysis was based on the price developments up to 14. June created. Because on the weekend, no trading on the classical stock exchanges takes place for those values, no data. A quick glance shows, however, that the basic statements shall continue to apply, despite the recent price rally, the Bitcoin over 9,000 US drive Dollar.
correlation: crypto-currencies vs. traditional market
As it is known in the crypto sector: The crypto-correlated currencies to be extremely strong with each other. The only two really notable exceptions of the Binance-Coin-price and the price of Bitcoin SV are still. Otherwise, the correlations are at least 50 percent:
we Come to the comparison between Bitcoin and the traditional markets: to Gold all of the comparison are correlated assets to Bitcoin negative, with the Nikkei Index and Oil have only a weak coupling.
in the Meantime, the three indices of the increasing correlation of Gold tried to follow, but fell to the coupling to the Bitcoin back to the Negative:
Overall, the absolute mean correlation Bitcoins with other markets at 16% and is the most independent Asset in our market comparison. Taking into account the compensation effects due to any of the anti-correlations, a negative correlation of three percent. Gold is correlated to the rest of the market is also negative, however, the coupling to the rest of the markets, with eight per cent is a bit stronger. Bitcoin is, therefore, in consideration of compensation effects currently, the most independent Asset.
The volatility has dropped back a little and moves currently about four percent. While the volatility of the rest of the market is still below one percent and hardly moving, is the increased of Oil well above the two per cent:
Performance of Bitcoin to be slightly below the Gold
Until the weekend, the Performance of Bitcoin weakened. Although the average monthly Performance continues to be above that of the comparison assets, but the distance is pretty shrunk. The Performances of the indices S&P 500, the Dax and the Nikkei could rise at least out of the negative range. However, they are still below the Performance of Gold. Oil has, finally, a negative Performance of 0.5 percent:
With the weakening Performance of the of Bitcoin is currently under the S&P 500 index and Nikkei. The DAX also performs nearly as good as the price of Bitcoin. Only Gold and Oil are far behind, and prance around the Zero:
For the cumulative Performance since August of 2018, however, this is not so dramatic. After a brief Dip from the beginning of June, Bitcoin could rise again on Gold. Since August 2018 Bitcoin can look in spite of the bear market the end of 2018, at a profit of 20 per cent. A Hodler, the on 1. August got in, he would have made a profit of 20 per cent. For Gold, this would amount to nearly ten per cent, for the S&P 500 he would have had to at least retract, no losses, and for Oil, he would have lost about 20 percent of its portfolio value:
so that Bitcoin shows as a good Supplement to traditional Portfolios. The correlation is very low and also the Performance, especially in the longer term, is extremely attractive. Only the high volatility could deter investors.
data on 14. June cryptocompare.com, finance.yahoo.com and fred.stlouisfed.org used.
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