The price of Bitcoin rose on the Morning of the 16. In June, more than 9,000 US dollars. So far, you can keep the price above this Level and rising even more. What can you say on the Basis of the Charts?
Dr. Philipp Giese
16. June 2019BTC$No. 9.152,00 3.88%part Facebook Twitter LinkedIn xing mail
There, you will feel of the old cartoon series reminds us that Bitcoin is about US $ 9,000. After the price of Bitcoin by the end of may, tried to the beginning of June, to crack this Resistance, he was able to rise well above this Level. This is not to reach a new high for the year for 2019: Such price heights not seen in Bitcoin for over a year.
now to the moon? Without the day before the evening, praise, looks of the Chart promising (here on the example of the value of pair BTC/USD on Bitstamp with trading view shown):
A rising MACD, a rising RSI and a high Aroon-Up Signal is a bullish language to speak. It offers up-to-date a Long Position at which a Stop Loss on 8.334,76 US dollars is set and the two Resistances in to 9,948,98 U.S. dollars and 11.417,39 US use the Dollar as a Target. Only after a course fall under the Support in 7.523,16 US dollars, you should consider a Short Position in recital, in which the second Support 5.686,68 U.S. dollars as the Target is targeted, and as a Stop 8.334,76 US dollars of Loss re-serve.
long-Term development from the Bitcoin course: we’re back in a bull market?
as far as the short-term forecast. What can you say about the long-term development? Certainly, the next Halving will affect the Investment behavior to the Bitcoin strong. Nevertheless, there are some critical voices, which describe the development since the end of last year in the Form of an Elliot wave. This should come through the current upward movement to an end what a three-piece correction should connect. Some of the downward movements in the area of the above-mentioned second Support. Also, in accordance with the over a year ago, presented Monte-Carlo Simulation prices to 6,600 US are excluded to the Dollar at year-end:
A look at the DVAV-Ratio
In the several months ago presented DVAV Ratio was noted that this has not yet sunk deep enough. The floor was in the old bear markets only after a fall of this Ratio below two to happen. In contrast, the DVAV Ratio is more than two – and has increased in the last few weeks, even slightly.
A re-analysis of the data allows for an Alternative Interpretation: What if we are currently in the real Post-Peak bear market? Both the bull market of the end of 2013, as well as the 2011 learned about before the actual new all-time high, a Peak, a slight consolidation phase followed. With respect to the Peaks of the end of 2013, we are talking about the Interim all-time high, which was reached in April 2013. After that, the price of Bitcoin experienced a longer period of consolidation. A similar, although temporally closer to each other lying, you can tell from the first Bull Run, bitcoin.
so What, a daring Thesis, if that was always high by the end of 2017, only a harbinger in the same major market cycle? Such a behavior could be detect by using the DVAV Ratio. You should see that this rises extremely abruptly (in the lower illustration of blue as bullishes scenario marked):
The current Increase in the DVAV Ratio could also be just a fluctuation, similar to the behavior in mid-2014, signed as a lot of bids due soon scenario above in red. So we should observe this relationship in the next few weeks to see if we can again expect dramatic heights or further consolidation.
The MA20 in the weekly chart bull market
as far as the Concern says. What is to be noted however: The price of Bitcoin is now already for more than two months ago above the moving average of the last 20 weekends. Accordingly, although certainly with consolidations, however, do not expect dramatic price falls below the mentioned Level. Only when the exchange rate is falling again sustainably below to 5,600 US dollars, one can speak of a real continuation of the bear market. Until then, we keep it with Frank Sinatra: Fly me to the moon.
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