the cost to produce A Bitcoin, many thousands of dollars. According to a new study on the power consumption of the entire Bitcoin network could be about to change soon: The price for the Bitcoin generation could fall by 2030 to incredible sounding 3,93 USD per BTC. Alone, the expected Evolution of the ASIC Miner will reduce the resource requirements so drastically that the entire network would not need any more power than a present-day development of the country.
By Max Kuhlmann
21. January 2019BTC$3.538,52 0.20%part Facebook Twitter LinkedIn xing mail
In their analysis, the authors take the financial economist Prof. Dr. Olaf Schlotmann of the Ostfalia University an Outlook on a variety of factors, which affect the future of Bitcoin. In addition to the cost of production further, the old well-Known: here the cost of the credit economy and the Bitcoin ETF.
The electricity costs for Mining form the price floor of Bitcoin. Many experts in the crypto-scene – not-so-Prof. Dr. Schlotmann. The former employee of the Ministry of Finance and former Investment Banker, who is now a Professor of financial Economics at the Ostfalia University, is of the opinion that:
“The enormous influence of technological development on the cost of production is ignored by many prominent market participants (Lee, Novogratz) with their price targets of US $ 100,000 and more, apparently.”
This sink show the resource requirements of the network, however, significant, as the following calculations.
current costs-scenario 1: Technological development at a constant Hash Rate
corresponds to The highest Hash Rate that could be achieved was in August of 2018, approximately 60 EH/s. (The 60 trillion Hashes a second.) The first future scenario, the study assumes a constant Hash Rate of these 60 EH/s. The electricity costs of 0.06 USD/KWh valued – this is roughly equivalent to the cost of electricity in China. In addition, it is assumed that the ASIC Mining Hardware is developed, similar as in the past, so the Miner will always be more efficient. Based on this, the researchers develop the following projections for the future cost of production of Bitcoins:
year (reward per Block in BTC) BTC cost of production in US dollars 2020 (6,25) 2.381,33 2025 (3,125) 89,19 2030 (1,5625) 3,93
This scenario will not see the cops that assume a price formation by the Bitcoin-price of Electricity, although, a co-author of the study, Dr. Stefan Ulreich. At just 3.93 U.S. dollars, the production of a BTC is likely to fall accordingly, in the year 2030.
To find the individual scenarios, calculations on the current required. Already up to 2024 would be the necessary current cost, however, drop dramatically. In 2017, 44 TWh (Terra watt hours) required, which corresponds to approximately the annual power consumption of new Zealand. Already in the year 2020, the power consumption should thus fall to the level of the small Caribbean island state Trinidad & Tobago, the need in the year about 10 TWh. 2022 the consumption of 2TWh, what would be the possible consumption of Luxembourg, and 2024 would be needed for the same power is only 0.5 TWh would be similar to a lot of energy in the African small state of Rwanda needs.
current costs-scenario 2: Exponentially increasing Hash Rate of technological jumps
The next scenario assumes that the Hash Rate as in the past, continues to grow exponentially, but it comes to technological Disruptions. This should have a similar impact as the jump from the CPU Hardware to the Generation of the ASIC Miner in the past. Examples of this were recognized in all ten years.
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Leading technology year (BTC reward per year) BTC network Hash Rate in the EH/s BTC cost of production in US dollars ASIC Miner 2020 (6,25) 256,5 10.180,19 1. technical jump 2030 (1,562) 538.988.066 was taxed 3,529,87 2. technical jump 2040 (0,193) 1,13 E+015 2.972,74 3. technical jump 2050 (0,05) 2,37 E+021 1,.256,75
Surprisingly, we also see here that in spite of exponentially increasing Hash Rate, the production cost in 2020 would rise, but then tends to fall. In 2030, they were now around 3,500 US dollars. The power consumption would also move in a reasonable frame. He would be in the year 2050, i.e. approximately at the level of today’s Singapore, at about 52 TWh.
What are these scenarios?
In the analysis, a bullishes scenario, where the Hash Rate is growing exponentially, is still, however, no technological quantum leaps are. In this variant, incredible Bitcoin rates up to 2030 are already over 35 million dollars, even though – just as incredible, also the electricity prices. The BTC network needs to be in the same year, as much electricity as the whole world is doing it today. This scenario appears in the research group of the least realistic, because such a high power consumption would find no social and political acceptance.
But what is the meaning of these scenarios for the Bitcoin course? In fact, not much. It means only that the forecast for the price of education not only on the cost of production to be watched, but other factors could be decisive.
chimney man is even assumed that the future price of education, the Bitcoin cost of production no greater role to play. Instead, it is crucial whether and to what extent institutional investors can be drawn into the market.
The Bitcoin as a financial innovation
The biggest strength of Bitcoin is the financial economist sees, however, in his fixed limit of 21 million Bitcoin. This could attract institutional investors as a hedge against Inflation. This results in significantly higher Bitcoin according to a used in the study financial market model prices derived.
This model to show “that Assets can take on very high values when a high demand for a fixed supply.”
Because only 0.5 percent of the currently in Gold invested capital should be in Bitcoin reallocated, would be sufficient alone for a Bitcoin price of about US $ 5,000. Ten percent of the capital in the gold market, should flow, in contrast, the Bitcoin, the extrapolation is already a rate of about 40,000 US dollars. In the case of an inflow of ten percent from the stock market in the emerging countries (Emerging Markets), could be a Bitcoin price of scarce US $ 100,000 can be derived.
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inflow, in % Gold Out of stock
(Emerging Markets) 0.5% 5,105 8,033 1.0% 6,962 12,819 5.0% 21,819 51,105 10.0% 40,390 98,962
but Whether great investors can be tightened, looks Schlotmann in strong, depending on the extent to which it succeeds in to establish Bitcoin as a regulated financial instrument. A Bitcoin ETF or the ability to can Bitcoin safely at state-regulated banks to keep, would be important steps in this direction.
in Addition, the crypto-currency for its clones and competitors had to be – that is, the Altcoins catch on, because “investors see in the real scarcity of the pioneer of monetary value.”
As a payment option Bitcoin, however, no Innovation
had to quote The researchers, P. Krugmann in contrast, with the words: “crypto-enthusiasts celebrate, ultimately, is a Cutting-Edge technology, which would bring the monetary system back to the level of 300 years ago.”
by The financial economist vent man plays, consequently, also on the gold standard, in his view, was recorded after a long time, almost religiously, without looking at the economic difficulties behind it. It is important to note that he runs out of Bitcoin in its “original form” – possible changes to the Bitcoin, such as by the Lightning Network, are not included.
The problems of our current monetary system, he does not consider.
credit economy vs. Bitcoin: The choice between plague and a flu?
on the basis of the calculated scenarios (with a power consumption of the Bitcoin network at the level of a developing country) demand the researchers, however, a Bitcoin-based money system, the cost of our credit economy. This is causing but credit bubbles, with significant economic costs. The damage the Mining caused, may be lower than the cost of the re-occuring bubbles. In this respect, Bitcoin offer “for here have a very good chance – certainly not as a full replacement of Fiat money, but as a good additional Alternative.”
The typical conflict: Cypherpunks vs. regulated financial accounting
In the preparation is the sober Outlook for the financial Economy, but not the revolutionary ideas of the Cypherpunks. Some of the main theses of this, there may be up to mountains but the hair. You can see the Bitcoin but rather as the counter-part to the current monetary system and not as an Element that depends on it, to be integrated into the existing System. But in the end, there are such studies and elaborations, which allows us to provide a realistic picture of a possible future for the crypto currency. And finally, the study also makes the Bitcoin bulls courage: If only a small part of the funds from the share or gold market flows in the Bitcoin emerge the Bitcoin prices to record levels.
