It is a constantly growing electorate with a fundamental role in guaranteeing victory
Just a week before the well-known ‘midterm’ are held, the elections held in the United States in the middle of the term and which serve as a consultation on the president’s management, the vote of the Hispanic community has become decisive in almost a dozen from states across the country.
With an electorate that is constantly growing and younger than the general electorate, some 34.5 million Americans of Hispanic origin are expected to participate in the elections on November 8, according to a study carried out by the LSG agency.
The Hispanic population already represents 14.3 percent of the US electoral roll, a figure that has increased significantly in recent decades. In 2008 they represented 9.2 percent of the population eligible to vote.
Hispanic voters, who have traditionally been characterized by a particularly higher participation rate than other voter groups, are mainly concentrated in states such as New Mexico, California, Texas, Arizona and Florida, among others, and have become a piece key to gaining a greater number of seats.
Most come from countries such as Mexico, El Salvador, Cuba and the Dominican Republic and focus their concerns on the economy, health, education, violence and security. Several surveys indicate that three out of four Hispanic voters have been dissatisfied with the current leadership, while 50 percent have expressed their disapproval of the administration of President Joe Biden.
California has 32 percent of Hispanic voters, a figure that places it as the state with the highest proportion of Hispanic voters, only surpassed by New Mexico. The vote of this sector of the population will be decisive in the region given that the elections could be very close.
The state is considered a ‘blue state’, with a Democratic majority, so no big surprises are expected when choosing the next governor. However, the distance between the Democratic and Republican candidates is significantly smaller in the fight for seats.
Texas also has about 32 percent Hispanic voters, although there has been a recent shift toward the Republican Party. Beyond its specific impact on the electoral results, which will be very high, the behavior of the Hispanic vote in Texas could show new trends in certain districts.
Unlike California, it is considered a Republican stronghold where the formation has rarely lost influence. The Democrats managed to win the support of these groups in the 2020 elections, although the margin was significantly reduced.
In Arizona, which has 25 percent Hispanic voters, victory is not clear. In 2020, Biden won by only 10,000 votes and thanks to the support of Hispanic sectors, which mostly favored the Democrats.
However, the Republican Party has made gains since then and managed to reduce the Democrats’ lead.
The weight of the electorate of Hispanic origin in Florida is one of the largest historically speaking. As in Texas, there has been a gradual change in the vote, which now favors the Republicans.
In 2020, Republicans secured their victory in the state by greatly reducing support from Hispanic groups for Democrats, a support they seek to increase next week.
Nevada, with 21 percent of Hispanic voters, also depends on the Hispanic vote, which can be decisive. In this state, Biden managed to get 2.39 percent more votes than former President Donald Trump. The support of Hispanic voters was essential for him to win this state.
Other areas such as Pennsylvania and Georgia are also in this line, where despite the fact that the Hispanic vote has a much smaller proportion, said electorate plays a fundamental role in the face of minimal margins of victory for the main candidates.
