MADRID, 1 Nov. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The 1,000,000 polling stations set up for this election day in Israel have opened their doors this Tuesday in which 6.7 million citizens are called to vote for the fifth time in three years after a new early call to the polls.
Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presents himself once again as the great mobilizer of the vote, between like-minded and opposed, so the coalition experiment that served 16 months ago to remove this veteran conservative leader from power must now demonstrate, with the former presenter Yair Lapid in front, that there is political life beyond Netanyahu.
Israeli citizens must designate the 120 members of the Knesset (Parliament) before 10:00 p.m. through an electoral system by which parties must obtain 3.25 percent of the support to access the chamber and be part of the appointment of the prime minister.
The President of Israel, Isaac Herzog, must entrust the formation of the Government to the candidate who has the most options to reach a minimum consensus, something that is not a guarantee of success, given that in the most recent elections it has not been easy reconcile electoral arithmetic with political interests
The aforementioned deputy has less than a month to try to form a coalition, an essential condition to govern in a country that, due to its own social and political structure, has been doomed in its more than seven decades of history to all kinds of pacts.
The different parties assume the ideological, religious and ethnic representation of the amalgam that makes up Israeli citizenship, although in recent years a determining factor has been affinity or enmity towards former Prime Minister Netanyahu, who wants to regain the position that he already held between 2009 and 2021.
Despite the various judicial fronts opened against him for alleged corruption, over which the shadow of political disqualification also looms, Netanyahu continues to lead the Likud, with a conservative ideology. In the legislature that is now ending, it was already the formation with the most deputies in the Knesset, and it seems that it will continue to be so.
However, taking into account that the forecasts place it at around 30 seats, it would need to seek as many others to overcome the threshold of 60 and achieve an absolute majority. The ultra-Orthodox of Shas and United Judaism of the Torah appear as potential supporters, although the main pillar would be the extreme right and, in particular, Religious Zionism, an anti-Arab alliance that has shot up to third place in voting intentions.
On the opposite side are the current prime minister, Yair Lapid, and his party, Yesh Atid, which, despite improving its data -it has around 27 seats in the polls-, is at a disadvantage because its promotion will theoretically be at the expense of subtract representation from their potential partners.
The Israeli Labor Party and Meretz, who would take four or five seats, have publicly criticized Lapid’s campaign as “self-serving”. If the current prime minister repeated partners, the best positioned would be Benny Gantz, responsible for the Defense portfolio and who appears in fourth position in the polls.
The appointment is not attended by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennet, with whom Lapid reached an agreement in May 2021 to share power that included alternation in the head of government. The experiment, based only on common animosity towards Netanyahu, failed in June this year, leading to the fifth election in less than four years.
Israel’s proportional electoral system makes participation key, especially in such a polarized context in which two large blocs will compete for power over a handful of seats and the entry into the Knesset of minority formations may be key. In the previous elections, more than 67 percent of the electorate participated.
With an Arab citizenry on the rise –already around 21 percent of Israel’s total population– their ability to mobilize is expected to be crucial, to the extent that they have not traditionally been as involved in politics as another of the big niches electoral, that of the ultra-orthodox –these are around 13 percent of the population–.
Likud needs not only to convince its own electorate that it remains the alternative despite Netanyahu’s recent failures to form a government, but also to obtain enough margin over the right-wing parties that are called upon to reach out to it in the future, in order to avoid a Possible friendly fire.
Lapid, for his part, has tried to distance himself from his image as an upper-class leader and also from those who have accused him of not taking a hard enough line on issues that have traditionally mobilized the population, such as the risk of outbreaks of tension like the Gaza Strip.
The outgoing prime minister has carried out several military and police campaigns in recent months in the Palestinian territories, not without criticism for the alleged excessive use of force and, at the same time, has proclaimed his defense of a two-state solution to make peace with the Palestinians.
The right shies away from this formula, although from the left it is recalled that it was precisely a Likud government, under the baton of Ariel Sharon, who took Israel out of Gaza. In any case, the Palestinian question has figured in the last year and a half in the political background, given that not even the ruling coalition dared to touch on an issue that generates internal division.
More recent is the historic agreement signed last week by Israel and Lebanon to delimit the maritime borders, due to the economic importance it entails for the exploitation of gas fields and, especially, due to the symbolism that two countries technically at war have been able to sign a common document, even if it were through indirect negotiations.
Netanyahu has promised this Monday to “neutralize” the agreement — “not cancel it,” he has qualified — and has suggested that Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of Religious Zionism, could be in charge of security issues in his future government, something that the radical politician has publicly claimed. Among his proposals is that of granting immunity to the military who deal with “terrorists.”
Lapid, for his part, has appealed to unity. “I never thought that Israel could be divided between ‘us’ and ‘them,'” he has noted on social media. In an opinion piece in the ‘Times of Israel’, he has promised “a positive and common future”, with a defense of the “great Israeli family” despite political and social differences.
The economic factor seems out of the question — solid growth, contained inflation and a budget surplus — in part due to a thriving technology sector that has left behind the leftovers of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in other current affairs Internationally there do not seem to be any major discrepancies: Iran is perceived as an existential threat from all fronts and direct involvement in the Ukrainian conflict does not seem to be on the table.
