MADRID, 31 May. (EUROPA PRESS) –
An international scientific commission made up of more than 40 researchers from around the world has developed a method to evaluate and calculate the “safe and fair” limits of planet Earth at a global and local level, such as the increase in average temperature, which concludes that a good part of these levels have already been breached.
The research work published in the journal ‘Nature’ establishes, according to the same set of variables, the limits of the planet to regulate life support and the stability of the Earth under the criteria of avoiding significant damage to the world population.
Once quantified, the Land Commission concludes that most of these ceilings have already been violated.
Specifically, it establishes that to avoid the high probability of multiple climatic critical points, the “safe” limit is 1.5ºC, which has not yet been exceeded; however, the “fair” limit to avoid high exposure to significant damage from climate change is set at 1ºC, something that has already been exceeded by 0.2ºC. In total, the limit considered “safe and fair” is 1ºC, which has already been left behind.
On the other hand, the research establishes that to maintain intact global nature, at least 50 to 60 percent of the ecosystem surface is necessary, something that has been transgressed to 45 or 50 percent; while maintaining a locally managed nature would be capped at at least 20 to 25% natural ecosystems per square kilometer to be safe and fair.
The study indicates that this limit has been passed in two thirds of the terrestrial surface dominated by human activity.
In terms of water, they have considered that the safe and fair limit for surface waters is having a maximum 20 percent monthly change in flow, a ceiling violated in 34 percent of the global surface.
The researchers conclude that avoiding significant damage to human populations was the criterion used for the dimension of justice, which implies the definition of stricter limits to the affectation of the Earth system.
Professor Johan Rockström, co-chair of the Earth Commission, lead author and director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Impact Research warns that the stability and resilience of the entire planet is being put at risk in the era of the Anthropocene. planet.
That is why, for the first time, they present quantifications and a solid scientific base to assess the state of our planetary health not only in terms of stability and resilience of the Earth system, but also in terms of human well-being and equity and justice.
“Justice is a necessity for humanity to live within planetary boundaries. This is a conclusion that the scientific community has found in multiple major environmental assessments. It is not a political choice. There is overwhelming evidence that a fair approach and equity is essential for planetary stability. We cannot have a ‘safe’ planet in biophysical terms if there is no justice,” says co-author Professor Joyeeta Gupta, Co-Chair of the Earth Commission and Professor of Environment and Development at the Global South from the University of Amsterdam.
Specifically, the Land Commission has quantified the safe and fair limits of climate, biodiversity, fresh water, and the different types of air, soil, and water pollution, which in most cases have been breached by human activities altering water flows, excessive amounts of nutrients are released into waterways from the use of fertilizers, and natural areas are becoming scarcer.
For researchers, this constitutes an existential threat to planetary stability, to ecosystems and their vital contributions to people.
The world has already crossed the ‘safe and fair’ limit for climate, set at 1°C above pre-industrial temperature levels, where tens of millions of people are already affected by climate change today.
“The results are quite worrying: within the five areas analysed, several limits have already been transgressed, on a global and local scale,” adds Rockström, who explains that this means that unless a transformation occurs in time, it is ” very probable” that it becomes inevitable to cross critical points of irreversible change (“tipping points”) and, consequently, a generalized impact on human well-being.
“Avoiding this scenario is crucial if we want to guarantee a safe and fair future for current and future generations,” he insists.
The report states that “safe” limits ensure stable and resilient conditions on Earth, and use Earth system functioning similar to that of the interglacial period during the Holocene as a benchmark for a healthy planet.
Specifically, the researchers indicate that a stable and resilient Earth is dominated by feedback loops that maintain balance that dampen and reduce disturbances.
State-of-the-art science on ‘climate critical elements’ constitutes an important line of evidence for establishing safe limits.
For their part, “fair” limits minimize human exposure to significant harm. The Commission defines significant harm as: widespread, severe, existential, or irreversible negative impacts on countries, communities, and individuals resulting from Earth system change, such as loss of life, livelihoods, or income, displacement, loss of food, water, or nutrition, chronic disease, injury or malnutrition.
The Commission takes the stricter value of the two quantified levels to define the “safe and fair” boundary of the Earth system in each domain.
In short, the executive director of the Earth Commission and director of the Global Hub Sweden for Future Earth, Wendy Broadgate, has stressed that the Earth system is an interconnected set of biophysical processes that operate across regions and scales.
Thus, he warns that interference in one part of the world can have enormous repercussions in other regions. “Using the boundaries of the Earth system as a starting point for holistic and transformative action will help a just and impactful progression towards a safe and just world”, defends Broadgate.
