Brussels endorses the Government's figures and reduces the deficit forecast for Spain in 2024 to 3%

It raises its forecast for the growth of the Spanish GDP four tenths, to 2.1%, above the Government’s estimates

The European Commission estimates that Spain’s deficit will fall to 3% in 2024, in line with the Government’s forecasts, and to 2.8% in 2025, in this case, three tenths above national projections, but it notes a path downward driven by favorable revenue developments and the phasing out of energy-related measures.

In this way, Brussels has endorsed the update of the Government’s fiscal forecasts, which suggest that Spain will meet the 3% of GDP objective required by the new fiscal rules in 2024, despite the fact that it closed with 3.6% of GDP. deficit in the year 2023, which will be taken into account for the possible opening of files for excessive deficit on June 19.

Furthermore, the Commission’s projections are more optimistic than those of the Government regarding the growth of the economy, since they place it at 2.1% in 2024 – one tenth above the Government’s forecast and four more than in the previous ones. forecasts– but they point to a “small deceleration” in 2025, up to 1.9%, one tenth less than what was forecast in winter.

The European Commissioner for Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, highlighted in a press conference that the growth of Spanish economic activity will be driven by domestic demand and supported by a “strong” labor market, while the implementation of the recovery plan is expected and resilience “underpin” the rebound in investment.

The spring economic forecasts, published this Wednesday, also anticipate that the debt/GDP ratio will continue to gradually decrease from the 105.5% predicted by both the national and community Executives for 2024, to the 104.8% estimated by Brussels in 2025. seven tenths more than the Government’s forecast.

These predictions place Spain among the five economies – along with Belgium, Greece, France and Italy – in which public debt is expected to remain higher than 100% of GDP by 2025.

On the other hand, the reduction in inflation is expected to continue to 3.1% in 2024 – one tenth less than what the Commission predicted in February – due to the continued decrease in pressure on component prices. non-energy and food, and that will continue to decrease to 2.3% in 2025, two tenths above the winter forecast.

The Commission is also confident that Spain’s unemployment rate will continue to decline, although it will remain at a high level, reaching 11.6% in 2024 and 11.1% in 2025, while it expects wage growth nominal prices moderate, but remain “marginally” above inflation. .