MADRID, 16 Feb. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The average daily price of the wholesale electricity market, the so-called ‘pool’, stood at 54.48 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) in the first half of February, which represents a drop of 26.5% compared to to January and 58.7% cheaper than a year ago, due to the collapse registered in electricity demand, which has fallen back to levels of 20 years ago, and the production costs of gas combined cycle plants, which They are the ones that set the marginal price in the daily market, especially during peak hours.
Specifically, electricity consumption has been reduced by 7% compared to last year, 10.5% compared to 5 years ago and is practically the same as 20 years ago.
This decrease in consumption is mainly explained, in the case of residential and commercial demand, by milder climatic winters, the growth of self-consumption and changes in consumption patterns due to greater energy efficiency and the high prices of both. recent years, according to analysts from the ASE Group.
Regarding industrial demand, the latest data, from December, point to a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, despite the fact that electricity prices are considerably lower.
The consultant’s analysts highlighted that the lower weight of the industry in the economy, greater efficiency of processes, self-consumption and the relocation of certain intensive industry, in response to the high prices of the last two years, “have destroyed a important part of the demand, which we still do not know if it will be recovered.
Furthermore, they predicted that the current trend of decreasing demand and increasing renewable generation, especially photovoltaic, could “lead to a significant imbalance between demand and supply and lead to very low electricity prices, with important consequences for the the profitability of renewable assets”.
Regarding gas consumption, it decreased by 18% so far in February, due to its lower consumption for electricity generation (-45.9%). Regarding the demand for industrial gas, it decreased by 8.3% year-on-year.
For its part, the decrease in gas prices and CO2 emissions have cut its costs by 50% since last October. Gas markets have accumulated a drop of more than 35% since October and CO2 emissions have stood at 56 euros per ton of CO2, their lowest value since mid-2021, thus impacting the reduction in the price of electricity.
This drop in the prices of the main commodities (gas, coal and CO2 emissions), together with the decrease in energy demand due to the mild climate and economic weakness in Europe, has translated into generalized falls in all electricity markets. Europeans.
Even so, Spain registers a price 21.2% lower than the group of large European economies, maintaining a strong discount premium.
In addition, Grupo ASE analysts highlighted that the mild winter that Europe is experiencing and the slowdown of its economy, together with the lower demand for gas for electricity generation, has generated “an important ‘cushion’ of gas storage inventory for end the winter, which has reduced the volatility of recent weeks”, with European reserves that are at 67%, which will make the effort to refill reserves during the spring and summer “be much less than that of years despite the Russian supply cutoff.
All of this leads to predicting, according to the consultancy, that prices will remain contained until the end of the month, since wind generation forecasts indicate that it could reach 200 gigawatt hours (GWh) during the next week, exceeding the average for this time of year of 160 GWh.
Likewise, demand forecasts will continue to be clearly lower than average, so electricity prices should remain very contained, between 50-60 euros/MWh for next week, they estimated.
